New York
CNN
—

Former President Donald Trump’s social media company is growing on Election Day as it faces a potential make-or-break moment that voters will decide.

Shares of Truth Social owner Trump Media & Technology Group rose 13% on Tuesday morning.

The rally builds on a 12% gain Monday and represents a recovery after three days of steep losses last week.

Traders have been betting for months that a Trump victory could boost Truth Social’s value – although justifying the current price tag would be very difficult even if Trump is back in the White House.

Trump Media is losing money and generating very little revenue. Its main product, the conservative social network Truth Social, remains small. Yet Trump Media has turned into a multi-billion dollar meme stock and a favorite way for traders to bet on how this election cliffhanger will end, inflating the net worth of its largest shareholder along the way.

Some other elements of the so-called Trump Trade also rose on Tuesday. Shares of major banks and bitcoin rose. This also applied to private prison companies Geo Group and CoreCivic. The prediction markets have also shifted toward Trump.

Yet the latest polls and prominent election models suggest that the race for the White House is a veritable coin flip that could go either way.

Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, told CNN on Tuesday that it is far too early to draw conclusions from the spike in Trump Media and other market moves.

“It’s extremely early. I don’t think we see smart money here. We see people throwing darts at a board,” Tuttle said.

Trump Media, which trades under the stock symbol “DJT,” has a lot at stake.

Although Trump Media generated just $1.6 million in revenue this year, it is valued at nearly $8 billion based on Tuesday’s earnings. That means Trump Media’s market value is roughly equal to that of Paramount Global, a media conglomerate that owns CBS and has raked in more than $14 billion this year.

If Trump loses the election, Trump Media will have little to fall back on. Venture capitalist Gene Munster recently told CNN that a Trump loss could cause Trump Media’s value to drop to as little as $1 billion. Others think it could be worth even less.

“I wouldn’t touch DJT because I think the downside is zero, and I’m not sure how much upside there is,” Tuttle said.

Trump owns 114.75 million shares in the company, making him the dominant shareholder. At current prices, those shares are worth about $4.5 billion. That’s up sharply from $1.4 billion on September 23, when Trump Media closed at a record low.