It’s only the first weekend of November, but the Buffalo Bills have all but wrapped up the AFC East race.

Josh Allen and the Bills snuck past the Miami Dolphins 30-27 at Highmark Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Allen led the Bills on a final game-winning drive before Tyler Bass hit a career-high field goal to secure the win with room to spare.

It looked like the Dolphins would force a quick punt after their tying touchdown, but a foul in the neutral zone and then an unnecessary roughness call on Jordan Poyer on a deep shot by Allen kept their drive alive. That set up Bass’ 61-yard field goal, which sealed their three-point victory.

The Bills have now defeated the Dolphins this season and they have a chance to officially clinch their division as early as Week 12. That’s something that has only been done three times in modern history, according to ESPN. All three of those other teams – the Eagles in 2004, the Patriots in 2007 and the Colts in 2009 – reached the Super Bowl and lost in those respective campaigns. Buffalo also entered Sunday with a 3.5-game lead. The last ten teams to have a lead of that magnitude or greater in Week 8 won their division.

The Bills had to get out of an early hole on Sunday to get their win. The Dolphins led 10-6 at halftime after holding Buffalo to just two field goals in the first 30 minutes. Tua Tagovailoa also hit De’Von Achane for a 14-yard touchdown pass late in the second quarter. That touchdown came after Jalen Ramsey intercepted Allen at the goal line on the other side of the field.

But slowly in the second half, Allen and the Bills started to climb back. Allen capped a long 11-play drive with a 1-yard touchdown pass to Mack Hollins out of the break, then hit Ray Davis for a 63-yard touchdown late in the third quarter. Davis caught a short pass in the flat, broke a few tackles and reached the end zone.

The Bills also converted the two-point attempt after that score, giving them a seven-point lead.

Although the Dolphins tied the game early in the fourth quarter after Achane’s 8-yard score, Allen and the Bills responded perfectly. They went on a long 70-yard drive that Allen ended with a 2-yard throw to Quintin Morris.

Finally, after a slow start to the season, Jaylen Waddle finally scored his first touchdown of the year. Tagovailoa scrambled through the pocket and found Waddle wide open in the end zone with about 90 seconds left, keeping the score tied.

The score came after a 12-yard reception earlier in the drive and an apparent ankle injury after taking a cleat directly to the leg.

That set up the Bills’ final drive and Bass’ game-winning field goal. The Bills have now won five in a row against the Dolphins dating back to the 2022 campaign, and Allen has a wild 13-2 record on the Dolphins.

Allen went 25 of 39 for 235 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in the win for the Bills, who are now 7-2 on the year. James Cook led them with 44 yards on 10 carries on the ground, and Davis had 70 receiving yards and a touchdown on just two catches.

Tagovailoa went 24 of 27 for 255 yards with two touchdowns for the Dolphins. Although they didn’t get the win, it was still a big performance for Tagovailoa, who returned to the field last week after his latest concussion sidelined him for five weeks. According to Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press, only six other quarterbacks in NFL history have recorded at least 24 completions with an 88.9% completion percentage in the league’s single-play history.

Achane had 63 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries for the Dolphins, and Tyreek Hill had 80 yards on four catches. Miami is now 2-6 on the year, and they’ve dropped three in a row. Their performances are far from ideal, but the season is far from over. After all, Tagovailoa fell just short of leading the Dolphins to a victory against one of the best teams in the league. But with the division almost certainly out of reach, it will take a major turnaround to make a third straight postseason appearance.