Mexican fighters will be honored on Saturday, Mexico’s Independence Day weekend, with a UFC event at Sphere and a Canelo Alvarez boxing match at T-Mobile Arena.

But there is little interest in betting on Alvarez, who is the heavy favorite at -2,000 over Edward Berlanga (10-1) at the Westgate SuperBook.

“It’s the worst action I’ve ever seen in a Canelo fight,” SuperBook president John Murray said. “It’s a combination of no one being excited about the matchup and then you have UFC at the Sphere on the same night.”

Murray said there has been a lot of interest in betting, including heavy action, on UFC 306, also known as Riyadh Season Noche UFC.

The only bout on the 10-fight schedule that does not feature a fighter of Mexican descent is the main event between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.

The favorite has turned in the UFC bantamweight title fight. Dvalishvili opened as a -140 favorite before sharp action on O’Malley made him a -132 favorite with the SuperBook to successfully defend his belt. Dvalishvili is a +112 underdog.

“The price of O’Malley has gone up a lot. We need Dvalishvili in that one,” Murray said. “We’ve taken a lot of action on Sean O’Malley. You have to call it sharp because look how much the market has gone up.”

According to professional handicapper Lou Finocchiaro, the main event is a clash of contrasting styles.

“Dvalishvili is a short, lanky wrestler with a relentless, forward push, and he’s going to come at you for five days, let alone five rounds. He’s not going to run out of fuel,” Finocchiaro (@GambLou) said. “They’re fighting in the big cage in the Sphere, and that helps O’Malley. It gives him more room to maneuver to avoid Dvalishvili’s wrestling attacks.

“If this is a quick fight, O’Malley will knock him out. If it’s a long fight, Dvalishvili will win by decision.”

Finocchiaro has no input into the main event, but he did recommend three best bets on the card:

Ortega (+155) above Lopes

Murray said the SuperBook had made sharp money on Brian Ortega over Diego Lopes at +160 and +150. Finocchiaro also made Ortega, now +155, one of his best moves.

The bout was originally scheduled to take place at UFC 303, but due to a drastic weight loss, Ortega was unable to compete on the day of the match.

“Fast forward to (Friday), and Ortega looked great. It’s a totally different environment for this fight,” Finocchiaro said. “The first fight, Ortega opened at -155, and when it got canceled, Lopes was a -130 favorite. Right now, Lopes is -180, and Ortega’s takeback is +155. The tax on Lopes has become too high.

“This is an insult to Ortega. He has no excuses. We’re going to give him his best. These are two Mexican heritage fighters, so this should be a real classic.”

Grasso (-135) over Shevchenko

Finocchiaro said Valentina Shevchenko was the best female UFC fighter of all time until about three years ago. But he’s backing Alexa Grasso to win the third fight of a trilogy that saw Grasso win the first meeting by submission and retain her flyweight title on a split draw in their second match.

“Shevchenko is 36 now and Grasso, a Mexican who fights for her people at Noche, is 31,” he said. “She has a really smooth power box and she hurt Shevchenko in both fights.”

Chairez (+205) about Van

Finocchiaro is also betting on Edgar Chairez as an underdog at +205 over Joshua Van on the undercard.

“Van is more versatile. Chairez is a Mexican power striker,” he said. “Van was knocked out brutally two months ago and I think he will come back into this fight even though he is the favorite.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at [email protected]. Follow @tdewey33 on X.

Fight the odds

At Westgate SuperBook

Alvarez-Berlanga

Edgar Berlanga +1,000

Cinnamon Alvarez -2,000

Total 8½ rounds

Exact result

Berlanga wins by KO/TKO/DQ 30-1

Berlanga wins by decision 20-1

Alvarez wins by KO/TKO/DQ -300

Alvarez wins by decision +250

Draw 35-1

UFC 306 Main Event

Merab Dvalishvili +112

Sean O’Malley -132

Total 4½ rounds