Two weeks ago was the 50th anniversary of The Rumble in the Jungle, and all the bouquets laid at the feet of that classic heavyweight championship boxing match between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman reminded me of – more than anything – this weekend’s match. heavyweight championship fight at UFC 309.

What’s the connection? It has to do with the fact that reduced expectations do not always foreshadow reality.

Ali’s upset of Foreman is remembered today as one of the fight game’s greatest moments. Yet going into the 1974 fight it was almost universally expected to be a bloodbath by “Big George,” the muscular, destructive, undefeated 25-year-old champion. Ali was 3½ years removed from his championship run and was 32. If he still floated like a butterfly, it was a slow, less elusive float that seemed destined to be crushed by one of Foreman’s sledgehammer fists.

Hall of Fame boxing PR man Bill Caplan, who worked the event, famously said, “People prayed before the fight that Ali wouldn’t get killed.”

And then Ali went out and shocked all those people.

Now, no one is suggesting that Saturday’s UFC 309 main event between champion Jon Jones and former champion Stipe Miocic (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET) is comparable in magnitude to one of the most iconic sporting events of the past half-century. Where the two fights align, however, is that this weekend’s one in New York’s Madison Square Garden also has its doubters, lots of them.

Miocic is 42 years old and hasn’t fought since March 2021, when Francis Ngannou knocked him out to take the UFC title. And in the years since, the heavyweight division has been in flux. Ngannou left in 2022 to pursue his dream of professional boxing, and when he returned to MMA this year, it was in the PFL. To fill the void in the UFC, Jones moved up from light heavyweight, where he had dominated for a decade, and in March 2023 won the vacant title in his heavyweight debut against Ciryl Gane. But that was over a year and a half ago, and since then the champion has been on hiatus, partly due to injury.

The heavyweight to watch all this time is Tom Aspinall. Since the last time we saw Miocic, Aspinall has won five fights, all close, all in the first round. And yet the Brit will only watch on Saturday. In his possession will be a UFC interim title belt, a piece of jewelry whose sole purpose is to set up a champion-versus-champion uniform fight. That is the fight that will really settle things in the heavyweight division, but for now the focus is on a legacy.

What the main event of UFC 309 will deliver is a monumental dose of history. Jones is the greatest MMA fighter of all time in any weight class. Miocic is the most accomplished UFC heavyweight ever, an unquestionable status he earned by making a record three consecutive title defenses. Three may not seem like a big number, but none of the past heavyweights with the belt made it – not Ngannou or Cain Velasquez, Brock Lesnar or Randy Couture.

So the ingredients are there for a Rumble-like shocker. Can Miocic dust off his old form and reclaim the title that was once his? Or will this be yet another show of supremacy to add to Jones’ glorious resume? That’s the main storyline of the weekend, but there are others. Here are five questions UFC 309 needs to answer.

1. Does it matter that this most important event didn’t happen five years ago?

Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic

Imagine if Jones and Miocic met in, say, the summer of 2019. Miocic had just secured his second heavyweight reign by knocking out Daniel Cormier. Jones was in the middle of his second run as light heavyweight champion, having already made 10 title defenses. Both men were active and at the top of their games. It would have been a real super fight.

That’s not today’s reality, of course, but the heavyweight division is one that allows aging fighters to discover a fountain of youth. Couture won the UFC title at age 44, and Cormier retained it at age 40. Miocic was just a few months shy of 39 years old the night he lost the title to Ngannou. So while a title match like Saturday’s, between a 37-year-old champion and a 42-year-old challenger, wouldn’t fly at flyweight, it could work at heavyweight. This distribution is determined by the enduring characteristics of strength and robustness, where speed matters, but one can compensate for its deterioration.

2. Shall we waltz again since your dance partner left you standing?

Lightweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2

This rematch of a 2021 fight that ended with Oliveira being knocked out is the only other fight that pits star against star. The appeal may be waning because we’ve already seen this matchup play out decisively. But to see Oliveira-Chandler 1 was to witness an enthralling battle for the vacant lightweight title.

What is the stake this time? That’s unclear, especially for Oliveira, as champion Islam Makhachev appears to be lining up to defend against Arman Tsarukyan, who last defeated Oliveira in April.

What’s at stake for Chandler? Money, lots of it. If he loses to Oliveira, he can say goodbye to the fight he spent two useless years looking forward to. If Conor McGregor returns, he won’t want to do so against an opponent who has suffered four losses in his past five fights. That makes this a risky throw for Chandler.

3. Are there reasons for optimism that we will see a real fight?

Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

This fight will likely be a blowout – ESPN BET’s oddsmakers certainly expect that, installing Nickal as the -1300 betting favorite. But there is one area of ​​intrigue, and that area is on the mat. Just six fights into his MMA career, Nickal is working to round out his game, but his goal remains the suffocating wrestling that made him a three-time NCAA Division I national champion. Going to the canvas has been a problem for Nickal’s past opponents, but a wrestling match would add to Craig’s strength as the Scot has 13 submissions among his 17 wins.

On the other hand, wins of any kind have been difficult to come by lately for Craig, who has lost four of his last five. Can he take the fight even if it goes to his wheelhouse, or will he just be a stepping stone in Nickal’s rise in the sport?

4. Will anyone ever feel so at home in the Octagon?

Lightweight: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson

Saturday’s bout against Jackson will be Miller’s 45th fight in the UFC, extending a record he will hold for many years to come. Among active fighters, Clay Guida and Rafael dos Anjos are closest to him, with 36 fights each, and Guida is 42 years old, Dos Anjos is 40. They are not catching up. Miller, whose 26 wins are also a UFC record, has been fighting in the Octagon since 2008 and he has never been less than entertaining. Why stop watching now?

5. Do all roads end in New York?

Middleweight: Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

Those unfamiliar with New York can consider UFC 309 a homecoming for Jon Jones. It’s not. He is from the town of Endicott, upstate, a three-hour drive from Madison Square Garden. However, this event is a homecoming for Weidman, born, raised and until recently living in Baldwin, a short hop from downtown Manhattan on the Long Island Railroad. Weidman is a true local hero, a two-time NCAA Division I All-America wrestler at nearby Hofstra.

Weidman pulled off one of the most stunning dethronements in UFC history, knocking out Anderson Silva and ending a seven-year reign. But that was in 2013, and the 40-year-old has struggled over the past decade, losing seven of his last 10 fights. Weidman hasn’t said he’s retiring, but since this is a hometown fight, what’s a more fitting ending?