Of the 435 House seats up for grabs on Election Day, only five are considered true toss-ups. Of that number, two seats are in California (the 22nd and 45th districts), one seat is in Iowa (the 1st district), one is in New York (the 19th district) and the last seat is in Washington (the 3rd district). district).

We may just have to wait until all these races are called – in California, for example, just over half of the expected vote share has been secured. But what we know so far seems to point to Republican wins with three seats, and Democratic wins. in the other two. If these trends hold true, it would amount to just one flipped seat in Democrats’ favor: in New York’s 19th District. Although ABC News has not yet declared a winner, the Associated Press called the race for Democrat Josh Riley late Tuesday night. The stakes here are high: The New York Times reported that approximately $45 million was spent on this contest alone. If Riley holds on, his victory would mark the second twist for Democrats in The Empire State. On Tuesday night, state Senator John Mannion, a Democrat, defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in the neighboring 22nd District.

In the remaining four add-on races, it appears incumbent lawmakers will pull through — but only by a thread. In Iowa’s 1st District, for example, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Christina Bohannan, with a lead of less than 1,000 votes and 99% of expected votes. The next closest race could be Washington’s Third District, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez currently leads her challenger, Joe Kent, by four percentage points.