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Updates on the storm’s path

Vaseline September 24, 2024

The storm is expected to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane. Helene has set its sights on what has now become Florida’s hurricane belt.

The path of the tropical cyclone has become familiar to residents of the Panhandle and Big Bend. In August, Category 1 Hurricane Debby made landfall near Taylor and Dixie counties in eastern Big Bend. The hurricane made landfall at 7 a.m., just 45 minutes and ten miles from where and when Hurricane Idalia made landfall in late August 2023 as a Category 3. The latter storm and its genesis have also been compared to Category 5 Hurricane Michael.

Hurricane warnings were issued for northern Florida and the peninsula Tuesday morning, a day after Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency, prompting some school districts to announce plans to close for days. Helene is expected to make landfall between Destin and Tampa on Thursday night.

Here are the latest updates on the storm’s path:

A hurricane warning is in effect for Big Bend as a still-disorganized tropical disturbance is expected to strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane on Thursday and hit Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Warning is in effect for Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Leon, Madison, Taylor, Wakulla. The warning means that hurricane conditions could arrive within the next 48 hours or so.

At 8 a.m., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and was moving toward the northwest by 9 p.m., the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

The system is expected to rapidly strengthen from a tropical depression today to a tropical storm and hurricane on Wednesday. The Hurricane Center said it will continue to strengthen Thursday before making landfall.

The Hurricane Center’s latest forecast does not differ significantly from Monday evening’s forecast.

The cone of uncertainty, which has shifted slightly to the east, still shows the hurricane making landfall somewhere between Panama City and Tampa Bay. The center line of the cone, which meteorologists are warning people not to train for, is just east of the Tallahassee area.

“There’s going to be little wobbles to the east and the west,” said David Reese, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. “But this far out, it’s kind of noise. The track could be 20 miles or 30 miles off to the east. Three days in the world of weather, that’s almost nothing.”

According to Reese, the biggest change in the forecast is a slowing of the hurricane’s trajectory, which could cause it to reach the Big Bend coast later than previously thought.

“It now looks more like it will be a potential event that happens somewhere between Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening, rather than a potential event that happens somewhere between Thursday morning and Thursday evening,” Reese said.

Contact Jeff Burlew at [email protected] or 850-599-2180.