In an October ad for Democrats in the United States, an image of left-wing environmental activist Jill Stein quickly turns into the face of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.

“A vote for Stein is actually a vote for Trump,” says a warning voiceover in the ad, titled “Crucial.” The video cuts to Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania this year and says, “Jill Stein? I like her a lot. Do you know why? She takes 100 percent of it.”

On October 28, the Democratic National Committee announced it would spend approximately $500,000 in a last-minute effort to convince voters in swing states not to vote for third-party candidates such as Stein, the Green Party’s presidential nominee. , and the non-member states. candidate, Cornel West.

Both Trump and Democrats have suggested that Stein could damage the vote for Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris, paving the way for a Trump victory.

But what do the polls say? How much impact could Stein, a third party candidate, have on the outcome?

Who is Jill Stein and what are her key positions?

Stein, 74, is the US Green Party’s candidate for the presidential election. She announced her candidacy via a video message on X on November 9, 2023. She previously stood as a candidate for the 2012 and 2016 elections.

Born in Chicago and raised in Illinois, Stein graduated from Harvard College in 1973 and from Harvard Medical School in 1979. Her campaign website describes her as a practicing physician.

The Green Party is a left-wing federation of green state parties in the US that advocates environmentalism and social justice.

Her positions on some of the most important issues in this election include:

Israeli war against Gaza

Stein has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, an end to the blockade of the Palestinian enclave, the provision of humanitarian aid and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons alongside Israeli prisoners held in Gaza. According to her campaign website, she wants to “stop US support and arms sales to human rights abusers.” She wants to “end the long-standing US practice of vetoing UN Security Council resolutions to hold Israel accountable to international law.” She also says she wants to dissolve NATO and “replace it with a modern, inclusive security framework that respects the security interests of all nations and people.”

War between Russia and Ukraine

The Green Party wants to stop fueling the war between Russia and Ukraine and work toward negotiations for a peaceful end to it.

Climate change

Stein’s party wants to advance the Green New Deal proposal to transition to clean energy and achieve zero emissions. The party says it takes an “eco-socialist approach” to the environment, centering and compensating for black people, indigenous people and the poor. Stein wants to declare a climate emergency and ensure that $650 billion is released annually to boost renewable energy and clean transportation.

The economy

A Stein administration would seek to create an economy that “works for working people, not just the rich and powerful.” Stein wants to introduce an economic law, abolish private schools and guarantee free child care and lifelong free public education for everyone from kindergarten to graduate school. She also wants to cancel the student debt of 43 million people in the US. She also wants to cut taxes on incomes below the real median income of $75,000 per household, and increase taxes on “the ultra-rich and giant corporations.”

How is Stein doing in the polls?

Overall, Stein polled around 1 percent nationally, according to The New York Times poll released the first week of October.

However, discontent is brewing among many Arab-American and Muslim voters toward both leading candidates — Harris and Trump — because of their continued support for Israel in its war in Gaza.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), a US-based Muslim civil rights and advocacy group, revealed Friday that 42.3 percent of Muslim voters prefer Stein, compared to 41 percent of Muslim voters who prefer Harris.

The survey of 1,449 verified Muslim American voters was conducted between October 1 and 31. It showed that only 9.8 percent of Muslim voters supported Trump.

As of February 27 of this year, CAIR estimated that there were approximately 2.5 million registered Muslim American voters. That’s about 1.6 percent of the approximately 160 million registered voters in the US.

How are the Stein polls going in the swing states?

Between October 30 and 31, Brazil-based analytics and data intelligence website AtlasIntel surveyed samples of voters in the seven swing states.

• Arizona: 1.1 percent of voters preferred Stein; 50.8 percent preferred Trump; and 45.9 Harris
• Georgia: 2 percent for Stein; 48.8 percent for Trump; and 47.2 percent for Harris
• Michigan: 1.7 percent for Stein; 49.2 percent for Trump; and 48.3 percent for Harris
• Nevada: 1.2 percent of voters chose ‘Others’; 50.5 percent chose Trump; and 46.9 percent chose Harris; Stein did not appear on the ballot
• North Carolina: 0.7 percent for Stein; 50.7 percent for Trump; and 46.7 percent for Harris
• Pennsylvania: 1 percent for Stein; 48.5 percent for Trump; and 47.4 percent for Harris
• Wisconsin: 0.8 percent for Stein; 48.5 percent for Trump; and 48.2 percent for Harris

Could Stein influence this election?

Because the margins between Harris and Trump are so small, some experts believe that votes for Stein could indeed sway the election.

“The vote is so close right now that a slight tilt in one direction or the other could tilt the vote,” Bernard Tamas, a political science professor at Valdosta State University, told The Guardian newspaper.

The Guardian also quoted Nura Sediqe, an assistant professor of American politics at Michigan State University, as saying: “Muslims are divided. Not all of them vote for a third party, but let’s imagine that a third party does: then you have up to 50,000 votes that traditionally went to the Democrats leaving. So if the margin is as small as last time, it could have consequences for the Democratic party.”

On Friday, the European Green family, which includes green parties across Europe, released a joint statement calling on Stein to withdraw from the race and support Harris. “It is clear that Kamala Harris is the only candidate who can block Donald Trump and his anti-democratic, authoritarian policies from the White House,” the statement said.

However, Kyle Kopko, an adjunct professor of political science at Elizabethtown College in Pennsylvania, told Al Jazeera that while Stein can theoretically influence the election, in practice it depends on how close the election results are.

It will have to be an “extremely close election” for her to break the vote, Kopko said.

Have votes for Stein changed elections before?

Stein contested the 2016 election, winning 132,000 votes in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Together the three states account for 44 electoral votes.

In these three states, Democrat Hilary Clinton lost by a total of 77,000 votes. Despite winning the popular vote, Clinton therefore lost the Electoral College vote to Trump, who won 304 votes, compared to Clinton’s 227.

The Republican leader defeated Clinton in Michigan by a margin of victory of 0.3 percentage points, in Pennsylvania by a margin of victory of 0.7 points and in Wisconsin by a margin of 0.7 points. These narrow victories gave him a combined 44 electoral votes from the three states.

In November 2016, an analysis cited by Vox suggested that if every Stein voter had voted for Clinton instead, she could have won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and thus the election.

However, Kopko said this could be misleading. If Stein had not been on the ballot, it is unlikely that every Stein voter would have voted for Clinton. “Some voters might be disillusioned and not vote at all, or find another third-party candidate to vote for,” he said.

Did other third-party candidates influence the election results?

In the 2000 United States presidential election, Green Party candidates Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke contested the election on the party ticket and ultimately won 2.7 percent of the vote. Nader made waves in the swing states of Florida and New Hampshire, and it is believed this allowed the states to switch from Democrats to Republicans.

This fueled speculation that the Green Party ticket was eating away at Democrat Al Gore’s vote share to cement a victory for Republican George Bush. The Green Party denied this.

Gore won more than half a million votes and only conceded after a month-long legal battle.

The two-party political system has made it difficult for third parties to make a dent in election results.

Only four third-party candidates have won Electoral College votes since 1920. These are: Robert La Follette, who won thirteen electoral votes in 1924; Strom Thurmond, who won 39 in 1948; George Wallace, who won 45 in 1968; and John Hospers, who won one electoral vote from a faithless elector in 1972.