As the US heads into Election Day, with more than 78 million votes already cast in 47 states, the District of Columbia and pre-election voting trends provide critical insights into voter behavior and who is expected to lead the race for the White House win. Here are three key takeaways:

Early election turnout will decline from 2020

Turnout in the 2024 early elections is down significantly compared to the 2020 pandemic elections. While more than 110 million Americans cast ballots in early 2020, pre-election votes are expected to make up about 50% of the total vote this year . This is more closely aligned with the 2022 midterms. There has generally been no voting before the election. In some states, more voters chose to vote early in person than in 2020 as the pandemic was at its height.

The states of Georgia and North Carolina witnessed record early in-person voting, although mail-in voting has declined due to stricter regulations.

Republicans rise in vote share before the election

After Trump’s voting rhetoric during the campaign, more Republicans voted early in person and by mail, a major shift from messaging to voting before the 2020 election.

In 27 states, registered Democrats cast 37% of pre-election ballots, while registered Republicans cast 35%. In the last election, 42% of Democrats chose to vote against 30% of Republicans.

In key battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina, the share of Republican early votes has increased.

In Arizona, 41% of voters were Republican ahead of the election, while Republicans in Nevada increased their share by just 1 point to 37% from 2020 to 2020. In North Carolina, where Trump rallied with supporters on the final day of his campaign, Republicans accounted for 33% of the pre-election vote. In critical Pennsylvania, Republicans captured 33% of the pre-election vote

Persistent but narrowing gender gap

The gender gap in early voting remains significant, with women casting more votes than men, especially in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. However, this difference is slightly smaller than in 2020, both in percentage and in total. This change reflects a broader pattern of less early voting overall.

These trends underscore a dynamic electoral environment, with implications for turnout and partisan momentum as Election Day unfolds.