A respected Nevada election expert has released his final analysis for the presidential race in the Silver State, predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the state by a razor-thin margin over former President Donald Trump.

Jon Ralston, editor and CEO of The Nevada Independent, wrote in one blog post Monday that he predicts the crucial swing state of Nevada by a margin of 48.5% to 48.2%.

“It’s a simple question: Can Democrats catch up?” Ralston asked, referring to the early voting lead Republicans have surprisingly collected in the state, along with a significant reduction in the voter registration advantage that Democrats typically enjoy.

“It’s really a matter of money, and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data and can’t decide. For days I’ve gone back and forth in my own head, my eyes glazed over with numbers, models and extrapolations The key to these elections has always been in which direction the voters who do not belong to the major parties will break, as they have become the plurality in the state. They will make up about 30 percent of the electorate, and if they have enough direction If Harris picks, she will win Nevada, I think they will, and I’ll tell you why.

BATTLES BEHIND THE SCENES: LEGAL CHALLENGES THAT COULD AFFECT VOTING BEFORE ELECTION DAY BEGINS

Former President Donald Trump rallied in Raleigh, North Carolina, before Vice President Kamala Harris spoke to supporters in Scranton, Pennsylvania, on Monday, November 4, 2024. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder/Kevin Mohatt)

Ralston explained that he believes many Harris voters who are registered as “nonpartisan” will get out and vote as part of the “Reid Machine” set up by the late Democratic Senator Harry Reid, the U.S. Senate majority leader from 2007 to 2015. to help pool resources to maximize support for candidates on the ballot.

“The machine knows who they are and will push them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover voting that this issue will also cause.”

I AM SAM BROWN: THIS IS WHY I WANT NEVADA’S VOTE FOR THE SENATE

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at Montage Mountain Resort in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Monday, November 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Ralson wrote that his previous analysis “concludes that Trump likely has a 30,000 vote lead at this point,” but he believes there are “many ballots to be counted in Clark County that favor Democrats” and suggested that the early rise of the Republican Party cannibalizes some of the votes. Voting on election day.

Ralston added: “I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not the case. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history doesn’t lie. I just have a feeling she will. But I also believe – and please remember this – that it won’t be clear who won here on election night, so block out the nasty nabobs of election denial. It will be very, very close.”

A Trump campaign official told Fox News Digital that Ralston’s “prediction” is “all wish-casting and not based on data.”

“The MSNBC employee hates Trump and admitted as much in his prediction. The Republicans are showing up and the Democrats are not in Nevada. The math is the math.”

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Former Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump takes the stage during a campaign rally at JS Dorton Arena on November 4, 2024 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Chip Somodevilla)

Ralston, who said he has “never missed a presidential call in Nevada,” also predicted that the incumbent Dem. Senator Jacky Rosen would win re-election in Nevada and the Democrats would perform well in second place. He did admit that he “messed up the election.”

Nevada and its six electoral votes are expected to play a crucial role in the presidential election in a state where the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Trump with a one-point lead.

President Biden won Nevada in 2020 by about 34,000 votes, and Nevada has voted for every Democrat who has run for president since 1992, except for the two elections with President George W. Bush on the ballot. However, the average margin over those eight elections is only 4.1 points.