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Warnings issued, domestic provinces
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Warnings issued, domestic provinces

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The National Hurricane Center’s experimental “cone of concern” is active for Tropical Storm Francine, showing warnings for inland counties.

Francine is expected to strengthen to a hurricane later today and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm.

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The new cone adds tropical storm and hurricane warnings and alerts for inland counties in the storm’s path. The current cone only shows warnings and alerts for coastal counties.

Tropical Storm Francine: Compare the New ‘Cone of Concern’ to the Old Version

Use the slider to compare the old cone of concern with the new version now posted by the National Hurricane Center.

What is the difference between the old cone and the new cone of care that Hurricane Center uses?

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NHC launches new cone of concern: what you need to know

The National Hurricane Center launched a new, experimental cone of concern in August. Here’s what’s changed.

The new experimental cone displays warnings and alerts that apply to inland areas.

Previously, the NHC Cone of Concern indicated the expected path of a tropical storm or hurricane, as well as the timing of the storm and any warnings, for coastal areas only.

The new graph still contains the same information, but also illustrates the potential impacts on areas further from the coast.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the warnings take precedence over the cone.

Differences you will see:

  • Warnings apply to inland provinces, not just coastal areas.
  • White transparent shading for the full five-day forecast, instead of white dots for the four- and five-day forecasts.

New hurricane center hopes new cone fixation on Saffir-Simpson scale will stop

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Video: Hurricane Categories Explained

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a scale from 1 to 5 that represents the sustained wind speed of a hurricane.

USA TODAY NETWORK

“We’re excited. It’s a big step forward for us and the people we help. It’s a better way to get information out there,” Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a telephone interview in July.

“We hope this will help people stop fixating on less reliable tools like the Saffir-Simpson scale. There are more accurate ways to convey the true impact of wind in your community and in your home.

“The Saffir-Simpson scale doesn’t help you understand what the actual impact might be where you live. The Saffir-Simpson scale tells you the peak wind (associated with a tropical storm or hurricane), but it may not be that way over your community.

“A Category 5 hurricane over Vero Beach doesn’t mean that there are Category 5 winds everywhere in Vero Beach. That doesn’t allow you to infer the impact or threats” where you live. “People misinterpret local impacts, with some overestimating the threat and others underestimating the threat,” Rhome said.

“Explicit high wind warnings (in your area) allow you to prepare for tropical storms or hurricanes, depending on where you are located.”

With the previous emphasis on warnings and cautions along Florida’s coasts, many inland residents and visitors were unaware of the wind hazards an approaching storm could pose far offshore. The new cone emphasizes inland warnings and cautions.

“The biggest change to the cone is the addition of the inland wind warnings. The National Weather Service has been doing those for years. We’re putting that information on the (NHC) cone to give a more comprehensive picture of the threat, so people don’t have to go to two different websites. It’s all seamlessly merged.”

Where can you find the new ‘cone of concern’ on the National Hurricane Center website?

  • Visit the National Hurricane Center’s main website.
  • When there is an active storm, you will find a summary of information for each storm, including public advisories and discussions about the forecast. Click on public advisories for the storm you are interested in. Here is the link for Francine.
  • At the top of the advisory are more links, this time including one for Graphics. Click on graphics. Here is the link for Francine.
  • You will see several graphs that NHC weather forecasters are releasing about the storm. You will want to click on the graph that is labeled “Warnings/Cone Static Images.”
  • Below you see an image of the old cone of care, but above it you also see the red highlighted text ‘Click here for the new experimental cone’.
  • You’re here! The image you see is the new experimental cone that shows the warnings and alerts in effect for domestic provinces.

NHC plans to keep the old cone for a while longer

“The existing cone will still be there. If you’re not ready to switch to the new cone, the old one will still be available everywhere,” Rhome said.

“Anytime you launch something new, there may be an initial spin-up education period. There will be a growth period as people get used to a new way of looking at their risk.”

National Hurricane Center Wants Public Feedback on New Cone of Concern

“The new one will replace the existing cone after one to two years of feedback.

“If there’s clear feedback — the colors are wrong, something’s not clear, the legend is confusing — then we’ll make more changes. We want feedback to verify that the changes are achieving what was intended,” Rhome said.

➤ Provide feedback on the new cone

“I think there will be input for more additions and refinements and then another year of testing with more feedback” before the new cone replaces the current one, Rhome said.

When the new cone is displayed on the NHC website, there will be a link to a short survey. Rhome said each piece of feedback received will be reviewed to determine how to proceed.

Follow our coverage of Tropical Storm Francine and the tropics

In a hurry? Here’s what’s happening to Tropical Storm Francine — in less than a minute.

➤ Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane before making landfall

Tropical warning, September 10: Peak of hurricane season has arrived. NHC tracks Francine, 2 tropical waves

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