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Week 1 College Football Best Bets from Matt Youmans
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Week 1 College Football Best Bets from Matt Youmans

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

When two of college football’s best coaches meet on a Saturday for a showdown, there’s always a chance that the game could turn into an instant classic. Well, that won’t be the case when Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier square off, but the teams are worth keeping an eye on regardless.

Cristobal, 12-13 in two years at Miami (FL), is in trouble. Napier, 11-14 in two years at Florida, is likely in an even worse situation. This won’t be a Garry Kasparov-Bobby Fischer chess match between inept coaches known for game-management blunders. Still, the rivalry is meaningful, the teams are talented, and the stakes will be high in The Swamp.

The Hurricanes appear to have the talent advantage, starting with quarterback Cam Ward and running back Damien Martinez, who rushed for 1,185 yards last season at Oregon State. Ward, considered the top quarterback in the transfer portal, threw for 48 touchdowns over the past two seasons at Washington State. But Ward can be inconsistent and he’s adjusting to a new offense.

Graham Mertz was far from a star in his three seasons as a starter at Wisconsin, but he looked like a different quarterback for the Gators last season, leading the SEC in completion percentage (72.9) and throwing for 20 touchdowns with three interceptions. Mertz is behind a solid offensive line and will be supported by running back Montrell Johnson Jr.

The Hurricanes played three big road games in the ACC last year and lost all three. I usually prefer the ‘dogs, especially when home-field advantage is strong. With the line flipping from 2.5 to 3 and back to 2.5, I took the field goal with the Gators.

I rarely recommend buying a half-point, but in this case I will if the +3 doesn’t reappear before the game. The betting public typically crushes the favorites early in the season — Colorado on Thursday, for example — so this line could shift again on Saturday.

Best College Football Bet: Florida +3

Four more plays before the weekend (home team in CAPITALS):

12:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Mountaineers won nine games last season to save coach Neal Brown’s job. Brown went 4-1 at home against power-conference opponents. He welcomes back senior quarterback Garrett Greene, leading rushers Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson and several veteran offensive linemen and receivers. Is the defense strong enough to contain Nittany Lions running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton? That’s a concern. I’m betting Penn State is a playoff team, but the Lions will get a serious test in Morgantown, where fans are already in an uproar.

Best College Football Bet: West Virginia +8

10:30pm ET (FS1)

Craig Bohl’s 10-year career as coach of the Cowboys is over, but he left the program in good shape and will be replaced by former defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel. If 6-foot-5 quarterback Evan Svoboda is worth the hype, Wyoming will be a dangerous team in the Mountain West. Star running back Harrison Waylee returns, and the defense is legit. The Sun Devils, 3-9 and near the bottom of the league in several key defensive metrics last season, will start a young quarterback in Sam Leavitt. Arizona State will lean heavily on stud running back Cameron Skattebo.

Best College Football Bet: Wyoming +7

7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Who knows new Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard better than new Texas A&M coach Mike Elko? Leonard played for Elko at Duke. Leonard is behind an Irish offensive line that has struggled with injuries and inexperience, and that means trouble against a fierce Aggies defensive front. A Notre Dame defense that allowed 15.9 ppg last season, returns nine starters and should be among the best in the country. The defenses are a strength of both teams, so don’t expect much offensive fireworks.

Best Bet for American Football: Under 47

Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

The crowd, based on what we see in Las Vegas, will be pro-Tigers on Sunday night. But this game isn’t in Baton Rouge, and I wouldn’t bet on the Trojans if it were. USC has enough talent to compete in this game. A dreadful defense that allowed 34.4 points per game last season will be improved by the addition of coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who took UCLA from 87th to 11th in total defense in a single year. Caleb Williams is history, but the Trojans should be just fine with redshirt junior Miller Moss, who threw for 372 yards and six touchdowns in a Holiday Bowl win over Louisville. LSU will need to replace quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was more valuable to his team last season than any other player.

Best College Football Bet: USC +4.5

For more College Football Week 1 predictions, visit the College Football Week 1 Hub on VSiN.com.