Welcome to Week 10! It’s not the most thrilling week of NFL football, unfortunately, with the only three games with spreads within a field goal between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders, Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams, and New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals.

We’ve got five road underdogs of at least four points. The only divisional matchups feature Bo Nix, Cooper Rush and Darren Rizzi. (Rizzi is the interim head coach of the New Orleans Saints, which you were not expected to know.)

I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each — and a few more lines and props I’m targeting that you’ll find at the bottom of the page.

All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.

Jump to:
Week 9 recap | Jets-Cardinals | Lions-Texans | 49ers-Buccaneers | Quick hits and SGP

Week 9 recap

With another winning week, we’ve now won more weeks (5) than we’ve lost (4) — just don’t look at the season-long numbers. We broke well last week with Cooper Kupp benefiting from Puka Nacua’s early exit and the Detroit Lions snagging a first-half pick-six to send us over. Can’t complain about the bad breaks when you don’t highlight the friendly ones!

Week 9: 6-5 (+1.11 units)

Overall: 43-53-1 (-8.51u)
Spread: 5-9 (-4.44u)
Total: 10-11 (-2.16u)
Props: 27-24 (-0.02u)
Same-game parlay: 0-9 (-1.8u)

New York Jets (-1.5, 46.5) at Arizona Cardinals

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Why Fulghum likes the Jets in matchup vs. Cardinals

Tyler Fulghum explains why he is leaning towards the Jets in their road matchup with the Cardinals in Week 10.

One week after winning as a home favorite against the 6-2 Texans, the Jets are now road favorites against the 5-4 Cardinals, winners of three straight. What faith in the Jets!

Lest we forget, the Jets went into the half against the Texans down 7-0. They scored 21 points in the second half on a heavy dose of quick passes and a few spectacular plays (the absurd Garrett Wilson touchdown snag on third-and-19; the third-and-3 slot fade to Davante Adams from 37 yards out when the Texans were selling out for a stop). I find myself still doubting the overall construction of the Jets’ offense.

This defense, however, is one they should be able to exploit. The Cardinals’ defense embarrassed the Chicago Bears’ offensive line with a season-best 46% pressure rate, but the Jets have far better pass protection than the Bears do, and on the season, Aaron Rodgers holds the ball nearly a full second shorter (2.64 time to throw) than Caleb Williams did in that game against the Cardinals (3.3 time to throw). On passing downs, the Cardinals simply will not be able to replicate last week’s success. And when they don’t, we should expect the Jets to find easy completions. The Cardinals are 30th by success rate and 26th by EPA on dropbacks.

When we flip possession to the other side, the advantage in the passing game remains with the Jets. The Cardinals’ passing game has been pleasantly solid this season (eighth in success rate, 12th in EPA) but remains very reliant on the play-extending and deep passing ability of Kyler Murray. Murray’s EPA per dropback is the same on pressured dropbacks (.13, second best in football) as it is on unpressured dropbacks (.13, 28th best in football). When teams try to beat the Cardinals by flustering Murray in the pocket, they lose. But when teams can cover downfield, the Cardinals’ passing game struggles.

When throwing into tight windows this season, Murray’s success rate is 11th worst in football, and his completion percentage over expectation of minus-7.3% is ninth worst. The Jets lead the league in forcing tight window throws at 23.1%. It’s true that their pass rush is improving with the return of Haason Reddick and the emergence of Will McDonald IV, but the strength of this team remains Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and the rest of the secondary, which will hopefully return safety Tony Adams to the starting lineup Sunday.

If the Cardinals get on a negative game script, I’m not sure they can throw their way back into this game — not with how well the Jets will be able to string together short completions and keep drives moving on the other side of the ball. But if the Cardinals can keep this within a neutral script, they can keep their running game involved. While the Jets’ pass defense is elite, their run defense has been average all season. They’re allowing 4.1 yards per carry on opposing designed runs, but they’re 22nd in success rate and allow runners to gain more yards than expected on 32.2% of opposing carries, which is right on league average.

The Cardinals winning this game feels very dependent on the point differential. Sure, if they get a big lead, they can sit on the ball fairly well (though their running game is better at ripping off explosives than just eating clock with 5-yard runs snap after snap). But if they fall behind, I’m not sure they can climb out of that hole. Meanwhile, if the Jets get on a negative game script, I really like their ability to get back into the game because of their expected success through the air. And they should be able to maintain a lead, given their propensity for short, high-percentage passes and the weakness of the Cardinals’ run defense, which is even worse than the Jets’.

I faded an overachieving Cardinals team at home last week, and it got shoved back in my face with a travesty of a Bears performance. I didn’t learn my lesson. I’m on the Jets in this one.

The bet: Jets -2 (-110)

I’m looking to Rodgers for my prop, as I expect him to have an easy, breezy day against this Cardinals pass defense. Rodgers has thrown for at least two scores in four of the past five weeks, and the Jets are the pass-heaviest team in the red zone — not by a little, but by a lot. Inside the 20, they are +11.0% dropback over expectation, more than double the next closest team, at +4.7%. Inside the 12, they are +18.0% — a preposterously high number.

With plenty of expected dropbacks in the scoring area for the Jets, and a bad Cardinals pass defense against them, I think we see Rodgers clear 1.5 passing touchdowns for the third consecutive week.

The bet: Rodgers OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110)

Detroit Lions (-3.5, 48.5) at Houston Texans

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Why Fulghum is backing the Lions in Week 10

Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he is taking the Lions minus the points in their matchup with the Texans.

This game is hugely reliant on the injury report, as Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is close to returning but has not yet been activated from the injured reserve and was not seen at practice on Thursday. With that injury alone, I feel confident taking the Lions and the points now. I don’t want to wait for later in the week, when we might get even tougher injury news for the Texans, as star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, I expect this line to get up to 4, so I’m taking it now.

The bet: Lions -3.5 (-110)

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Is it safe for fantasy managers to drop Sam LaPorta?

Field Yates dissects whether he believes if it is safe for fantasy managers to drop Sam LaPorta before Week 10.

The absence of Collins has proved to be an enormous deal for the Texans. C.J. Stroud was forced to play against a tough Jets defense without both Collins and Stefon Diggs, who is on injured reserve for the rest of the season, but we have enough data now to show that Stroud’s passing game becomes remarkably less dangerous when Collins is absent from the starting lineup.

It’s easy to see the missing deep bombs, but what surprises the most is the missing underneath success. Stroud has actually thrown deeper without Collins on the field than he does with him on the field this season. He’s trying to score seven points in one play because Collins’ ability to turn a quick screen into 7 yards or pick up a third-and-8 right at the sticks is absent from the offense.

Despite the effort to throw downfield more, the rate at which Stroud creates explosive passes drops tremendously. In the past, I would promise that anyone can complete deep passes against the Lions. But that is no longer the case. They’re third in the league in opponent EPA per dropback, which is a huge testament to a safety tandem of Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch that excels at taking away the football. But even if you ignore turnovers, the Lions allow an explosive pass on 12.6% of dropbacks, which is right around league average, and they’re 13th by success rate.

This pass defense has been healed — not totally fixed, not made to be elite, but healed — by the offseason additions of Carlton Davis III, Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson. Those are the only three Lions cornerbacks with more than 100 snaps on the season, and all are new additions to the team as of this offseason. It took a little bit of settling in, but this group has the pieces to finally deliver on the heavy man coverage that defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn wants to play. Against the Texans’ depleted wide receiver room, the Lions should find success.

It is worth noting that Stroud has cooked man coverage this season. Per Next Gen Stats, he has seen the fourth-lowest rate of man coverage this year but has generated the fifth-most expected points against man coverage. Fading the Texans is always scary, as Stroud always has the capacity to go nuclear, and this week certainly qualifies.

On the other side of the ball, I am fascinated to see how the Texans’ defense tries to slow down the Lions’ juggernaut of an offense, which now returns WR Jameson Williams to the starting lineup. The Lions force opposing defenses to play zone coverage at the league’s highest rate — 80% of dropbacks, to be exact — by getting under center and putting receivers tight to the formation. The Texans will play plenty of zone, but they will never get out of their nickel defense and instead will try to stop the Lions’ rushing attack with five defensive backs on the field.

This plays right into Detroit’s hands. The Lions don’t want to try to run into light boxes; they prefer to get extra bodies in there to run complex blocking schemes and mess with your responsibilities. The Lions’ running game faces on average 6.94 defenders in the box, the third most in the league. That seventh player for the Texans won’t be an additional lineman or linebacker but rather a defensive back (either nickel corner Jalen Pitre or safety Eric Murray). That’s an advantage for the Lions, especially if Anderson, the Texans’ best run defender along their defensive line, is out.

The one thing the Texans’ defense does extremely well? Take away tight ends. Because they encourage wide receiver throws by letting their corners live in one-on-ones, and because they play with that additional defensive back on the interior, the Texans just don’t let tight ends see many targets. Opposing tight ends average 0.61 yards per route run against Houston, which is the lowest number in football. (Funnily enough, the Lions are second lowest at 0.73.)

With Williams returning to the starting lineup at wideout, I expect a loss in target share for Sam LaPorta, whose quieter season has largely coincided with the JaMo emergence. LaPorta is good for at least one explosive catch a game, but so long as his volume stays low on a run-heavy script, he should fail to clear this number.

The bet: LaPorta under 34.5 receiving yards (-120)

San Francisco 49ers (-6, 50.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Why Fulghum expects lots of points to be scored in 49ers vs. Bucs

Tyler Fulghum says he expects the over to hit when the 49ers take on the Buccaneers in Week 10.

Man, am I excited to watch Christian McCaffrey play football again.

The 49ers’ star back is expected to make his season debut after double Achilles tendinitis sidelined him for the first game of the season, and then the second, and all of a sudden it was Week 10. He has been practicing all week with no setbacks, so presumably he’s back at full strength from an injury that followed a long run to reach the Super Bowl last season.

Of all the reasons to enjoy a McCaffrey return to the 49ers’ offense, the biggest is red zone efficiency. Last season, the 49ers led the league with 67.2% of their red zone drives ending in touchdowns. McCaffrey scored 21 of the team’s 60 regular-season touchdowns last year. Of the 49ers’ red zone touchdowns, McCaffrey scored 18 of 42. Few teams relied more on one singular player in the red area last year than did the 49ers with McCaffrey.

It should be unsurprising, then, that the 49ers are suffering in the red zone this year. Only 48.6% of the Niners’ red zone drives have ended in touchdowns. Only four offenses are worse. The same effect can be found in goal-to-go efficiency, where the 49ers have dropped from fourth all the way down to 29th. It is both the effectiveness of McCaffrey as a ball carrier and the threat of his deployment in the passing game that is absent from the offense. When both potentially return Sunday, I expect the 49ers to immediately begin finishing drives with sevens instead of threes. There are no props yet for McCaffrey in any capacity — rushing, receiving or touchdown scoring — though I like him to score at anything -150 or better.

Offensive success should generally abound in this game, as the Buccaneers have been one of the worst pass defenses in all of football, even after their team has gotten healthy over the past few weeks. Kyle Shanahan has also enjoyed success against Todd Bowles’ defense in the past couple of seasons, putting 35 on Bowles in 2022 and another 27 in 2023.

In our Early Bets column on Monday, I gave this total as an over look at 47.5 points, and it has since risen to 50.5. That’s as high as I like the bet. I think the 49ers’ team total is the look here, and at the time, the best line posted on ESPN BET for that is for the 49ers to have at least four team touchdowns at plus money. Four of the Buccaneers’ past five opponents have gotten to this number, and the fifth was the Spencer Rattler-led Saints.

The bet: 49ers over 3.5 team touchdowns (+105)

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Is matchup vs. Buccaneers a must-win game for 49ers?

Dan Orlovsky, Jason McCourty and Kimberley A. Martin break down the importance of the 49ers’ game vs. the Buccaneers.

When the Buccaneers have the ball, it seems that the offense will remain good enough in the absence of both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to remain competitive. Tight end Cade Otton has enjoyed the increased volume and delivered with quality plays, while the two-headed backfield of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White continues to produce in both the running and passing game. The Buccaneers are scraping offense together admirably, given the situation.

I like their matchup with the 49ers because they’re well-equipped to minimize the impact of Nick Bosa. The Buccaneers’ tackle duo of left tackle Tristan Wirfs and right tackle Luke Goedeke (the far less heralded of the two) is one of the best in football. It’s the interior rush that beats this Tampa offense. The 49ers’ starting interior rushers, Maliek Collins and Kevin Givens, have pressure rates of 9.5% and 12.6%, respectively. If Givens can’t go, it’s Jordan Elliott, who has a pressure rate of 3.4%.

You have to be able to pressure Baker Mayfield to get bad Baker, and I’m not sure the 49ers will be able to — at least, not consistently enough. With how often Mayfield is targeting the backs and tight ends right now, we should expect him to rack up a high completion percentage, as those throws are typically easier to complete. And as 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward remains absent from the team, throwing on the outside should be a little easier as well. So long as we get the expected negative game script for the 6-point underdogs, I like Mayfield for tons of completions in this one, especially if he gets the opportunity for a two-minute drill or two.

The bet: Mayfield over 23.5 completions (-115)

Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)

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Why Fulghum likes the Jags plus the points on Sunday

Tyler Fulghum explains why he is taking the Jaguars plus the points in their matchup against the Vikings.

Alvin Kamara OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-120)

I’m back on the Kamara train, as the New Orleans Saints running back got a whopping 155 yards on 29 carries last week against the Carolina Panthers and now gets an Atlanta Falcons run defense that’s, well, just about as bad as the Panthers’ is. On carries by backs, the Falcons’ defense is actually worse by success rate than the Panthers’ defense, and the trench mismatch between the healthy Saints offensive line and the Falcons’ defensive line is a big one. With no Chris Olave for this game, I expect a heavy dose of Kamara, even on a bad game script.

Javonte Williams UNDER 39.5 rushing yards (-125)

No Denver Broncos running back gets a heavy volume of carries in Sean Payton’s rotation-heavy approach, and while Williams is the primary ball carrier, he gets far fewer totes in losses this season (9.25 on average) than in wins (13). Assuming the Kansas City Chiefs lead handily, as the 7.5-point spread implies, we should expect Williams to lose snaps to Jaleel McLaughlin as the Broncos go increasingly pass-heavy. Opposing backs are getting only 3.1 yards per carry against the Chiefs this season, so Williams should need around 13 carries to clear this number, and I just don’t think the volume will be there for him.

Minnesota Vikings -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

As a long-suffering Trevor Lawrence defender, I simply must fade the Jaguars when Lawrence is out and backup quarterback Mac Jones is facing the vaunted Vikings defense. I actually think given Mac’s experience and the strength of the Jaguars’ running game that there is some room for offensive success but nothing that can keep pace with this Vikings passing game against one of the worst pass defenses in all of football.

Aaron Jones over 19.5 receiving yards (+105)

Receiving backs against the Jaguars, forever and always. Even as the Texans added another back in Cam Akers, Jones is still dominating in routes run, having set a season high in Week 8 (22) and again in Week 9 (25). The worry here is that the Jaguars cannot keep this game close enough for the backs to really get involved in the passing game. But Jones could get this on just one screen, so I’m willing to take it at plus money.

SGP: Patriots-Bears OVER 36.5, Drake Maye 25+ rush yards, D’Andre Swift 80+ rush yards, Cole Kmet 2+ receptions (+650)

I usually like the Bears to dominate at home, but with how odd the vibes have been around that locker room (and the continued injuries on defense), I think the Patriots can put up a good smattering of points here. Maye has been a big scrambler, and that shouldn’t change with the Bears’ strong pass rush moving him off his spot. The Pats are getting dominated in the running game in recent weeks, and I expect a heavy dose of it to protect the Bears’ tackles — I’ll be on Swift alts this week. I also like a touch of Kmet, who has barely been targeted since the Bears returned from their bye. The coaching staff will want to address that early, for sure.