Texas State is a real threat to become the Group of 5’s College Football Playoff representative. After a 49-10 blowout of UTSA, the Bobcats’ offense looks like a colossus.

But Arizona State certainly isn’t bad.

Powered by star forward Cam Skattebo, the Sun Devils are 2-0 after a 40-point win over Wyoming and a touchdown victory over Mississippi State.

The two teams meet Thursday night in a non-conference game in San Marcos, Texas, with Arizona State entering the competition as a short favorite.

Let’s analyze the match and make a prediction and tip.

Arizona State vs Texas State Odds

Arizona State vs. Prediction Texas State

(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Yes, the Sun Devils beat an SEC team last week, but they really shouldn’t have won that game.

Mississippi State outgained Arizona State by over 100 total yards (415 to 292), resulting in a much higher passing percentage (48% to 43%).

If the Sun Devils hadn’t recovered both of the Bulldogs’ fumbles, they likely would have entered Thursday’s game with a 1-1 lead.

They would probably have gone into Thursday’s game as underdogs as well.

According to my power ratings, Texas State is the one-point home favorite, which represents a three-point difference from the current market price.

The Bobcats return nine starters from a 2023 offense that averaged 37 points per game (11th nationally) and ranked 15th nationally in conversion rate (48%).

Coach GJ Kinne has done wonders with the attack.

Top back Ismail Mahdi returns after a season in which he rushed for 1,300 yards, with three of his five starting offensive linemen returning to fill more gaps.

The Bobs ranked in the top 20 in the country in Rush Success Rate and Explosiveness last season.

After two games, it appears the offense is even better than last year after replacing quarterback TJ Finley with Jordan McCloud, who completed 68% of his passes for 3,600 yards for James Madison in 2023.

Texas State ranks fifth in the nation in passing plays of 30-plus yards (six) through the first two weeks.

McCloud is performing near-perfectly (68% completion, 547 yards, five touchdowns), while Mahdi and reserve Lincoln Pare have combined for over 300 rushing yards on nearly 6 yards per attempt.

The Bobcats are firing on all cylinders and should beat Arizona State’s defense. Last season, the defense ranked 122nd nationally in passing percentage allowed, including 130th in passing percentage allowed.

Arizona State’s defense, on the other hand, doesn’t appear to have improved.

Only four starters from last year are back and the club is heavily reliant on transfers in the front seven.

Mississippi State runs a passing-oriented offense, so it’s understandable that the Bulldogs didn’t produce many rushing yards (24) against Arizona State in Week 1. However, MSU generated nearly 9 yards per pass attempt (85th percentile) and 0.37 EPA per dropback (84th percentile) behind veteran quarterback Blake Shapen.

Just imagine what McCloud can do on Thursday night.

I’m concerned about Texas State’s defense against Skattebo. The Bobcats were terrible last season, and the Sun Devil star back has already racked up over 300 rushing yards on over 7 yards per attempt in two games.

However, nine starters return from Texas State’s defense last year, including five of the top eight defensive linemen. With more experience, the Bobcats should continue to improve as the season progresses.

The more experienced front seven has already shown improvement, with UTSA managing just 66 rushing yards on 30 attempts in a brutal 10-point effort last Saturday.

The Bobcats will likely be more vulnerable on passing plays, especially chunk passing plays, as they ranked 126th in Explosiveness allowed last season. Whether Arizona State can throw the ball, however, remains to be seen.

Betting on American football?

New QB1 Sam Leavitt has completed just 57% of his passes through two games.

Against Mississippi State, he threw 10 of 20 attempts for just 69 yards, with 3.5 yards per attempt, resulting in a -0.53 EPA per dropback (5th percentile).

I’m betting at least on the better quarterback (McCloud) who plays at home on Thursday.

Arizona State vs. Texas State Pick

Arizona State is overrated coming into Thursday’s game and I expect them to be blown out as favorites by the more complete, balanced Texas State team.

The Bobcats can run, pass and appear to be trending upward in the front seven. I’m not sure Arizona State can do more than ground and pound behind Skattebo in a potentially bad matchup.

Choice: Texas State +1.5 (-112, DraftKings)