Prior to the start of the season, I was very high on this Bowling Green team to emerge as the cream of the crop in the MAC and take home the conference title. My optimism for the Falcons hasn’t wavered one bit, especially after Bowling Green pulled off a blowout win over Toledo a few weeks ago. However, this promises to be one of the toughest tests of the season for the Falcons, as they will host a team from Western Michigan that is also vying for that top spot in the MAC standings. While I believe the Falcons are the better team overall, this threshold is simply too high for a touchdown for a game of this magnitude. After all, Western Michigan has suffered just one conference loss, a game against Northern Illinois last week in which the Broncos lost three times.

This Broncos offense is one of the better units in the conference, ranking 35th in success rate, 15th in points per quality possession and 30th in Early Downs EPA. As long as Western Michigan stays on schedule and doesn’t commit unnecessary penalties, the Broncos should be able to put up points in this game against a Bowling Green defense that has struggled against the run (109th in opponent EPA per rush) and is simply an average unit on early downs. On the other hand, the Falcons are really struggling to run the ball, which is typically how you attack this Western Michigan defense (121st in Success Rate Allowed, 115th in Early Downs EPA). And while Bowling Green should get its points in this game, I just can’t get there with these numbers. Overall, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Falcons won by a field goal, so there’s some room to run with this current line.

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green prediction: Western Michigan +9.5 (-110) available at time of publication. Playable up to 8

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