The Bucks do not want to trade Antetokounmpo, who is under contract until 2028 (including a player option for 2027-2028). Milwaukee can simply refuse, but star players usually get their way in the NBA.

If Antetokounmpo chose to play the bad guy, it could push the Bucks to accept their situation with clear eyes. The selection is outdated. Defensively, the team isn’t what it used to be since trading Jrue Holiday to acquire Lillard. Khris Middleton will likely pick up his $34 million player option for next season. If Bobby Portis picks up his player option ($13.4 million) or opts out and demands a raise, the Bucks will continue to pay luxury taxes for the sixth straight year in 2025-2026.

Meanwhile, the product on the floor has diminished and the front office has failed to find young, impactful players to rejuvenate the lineup. Losing Antetokounmpo sounds like accepting a rebuild, but the team is currently in the middle of the East, and the return of the Rockets adds valuable depth to build around.

Sheppard, the third overall pick in June’s draft, was projected by NBA general managers as the Rookie of the Year and the best player in his class in five years, according to John Schuhmann of NBA.com. Currently, Sheppard is buried behind Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green in Houston. He hasn’t yet had the chance to show what he can do in a more prominent role.

Thompson (the No. 4 overall pick in 2023) is a super athletic 6-foot-4 prospect. At worst, Smith (the No. 3 overall pick in 2022) is a high-level role player. He could also thrive in a bigger role in a new environment.

The Bucks would also get plenty of draft compensation with three unprotected first-round picks and a first-round swap. They would immediately be subject to the luxury tax, which would waive an expected $74.8 million fine (which could give them a tax refund of between $16 and $17 million). Including the commensurate drop in payroll, that’s a savings of about $110 million, minus $1.3 million from Milwaukee to Antetokounmpo as a trade bonus.

The Bucks also send Wright, Green and Livingston to Houston. Detroit has yet to pick up Moore’s fourth-year rookie scale option, so he would likely be on an expiring contract for the Bucks (who are also sending Beauchamp to Detroit).

Milwaukee finalizes the deal with an open roster spot, a hard cap on the first platform and approximately $3.7 million in flexibility under the luxury tax.

Losing one of the NBA’s best players would be a bitter pill, but the Bucks appear to be stagnant for this year and next based on their current commitments. This wouldn’t be a hard reset that would put them at the bottom of the standings. It would keep them semi-competitive while adding important future considerations and a huge trade exception best saved for the 2025 offseason.