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What impact will La Niña have?

Vaseline October 18, 2024

A long-awaited La Niña is expected to arrive in time for winter, bringing wetter-than-average conditions to the Great Lakes region and other parts of the northern United States.

The expected northern path for those storms will bring above-average temperatures for New York and the eastern Great Lakes, according to the U.S. winter outlook released by NOAA on Oct. 17.

When La Niña is in effect, conditions in the Great Lakes region are wetter than normal in the winter. According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 60% chance of a weak and short-lived La Niña developing between September and November and lasting from January to March.

La Niña is the opposite phase of a single seasonal climate phenomenon, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is characterized by cooler than average surface waters in the same region.

The quarterly forecast assesses the likelihood that temperature and precipitation amounts will reach average, be above or below average and covers December, January and February.

New winter forecast tools for NOAA

Along with the winter outlook, NOAA has announced new forecast tools for when it will be cold and snowy later this year.

Tools include the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index, which represents potential real-world implications of winter hazards on a scale from minor to extreme. The tool calculates the likely impact for snow quantity, snow load, snow quantity, ice accumulation and blowing snow.

As part of NOAA’s Hazard Simplification Initiative, wind chill advisories, alerts and warnings will consist of cold weather advisories, extreme cold advisories and extreme cold warnings. Hard freeze monitoring and warning have recently been consolidated into existing freeze monitoring and warning products.

— Steve Howe reports on weather, climate and the Great Lakes for the Democrat and Chronicle. A graduate of RIT, he has covered numerous topics over the years, including public safety, local government, national politics and economic development in New York and Utah.