Yiwu, China, has the largest wholesale market in the world, where business is booming as traders look for cheap products to stock their shelves. However, political analysts are also closely monitoring a phenomenon they call the “Yiwu Index.” According to this idea, a US presidential candidate’s chances of winning the next election increase as the sale of replica items in Yiwu is successful.

Interestingly, the ‘Yiwu Index’ predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 victory more accurately than pollsters who were confident Hillary Clinton would win the election.

Beijing is likely to apply this theory as it looks towards the 2024 elections, all of which will take place on November 5, Daily Mail reported.

What is the Yiwu Index?

Political campaigns have always relied heavily on merchandise. While candidates often use their official attire to raise money, foreign retailers have flooded the market with copies of the candidates’ merchandise, capitalizing on the growing divisions in American politics.

Yiwu is known for issuing early warnings about upcoming presidential elections based on the types of goods it sells. However, the market is not perfect, and there are flaws in relying on the index to predict the outcome.

Firstly, the market is largely dependent on wholesalers and products are almost never sold directly to customers.

Retailers can typically place bulk orders for specific products during this purchasing period in anticipation of a spike in demand.

Trump supporters are far more likely to display, wear and purchase goods that reflect their political preferences than followers of Vice President Kamala Harris or any other candidate.

Despite the fact that Chinese-made Trump merchandise outsold goods bearing Joe Biden’s name in 2020, the latter still declared victory.

Yiwu’s prediction for the 2024 US elections

Before the 2024 US elections, Yiwu’s market saw a sharp increase in demand for Harris-Walz camouflage campaign caps, which is a good sign for Democrats.

According to The Telegraph, the first batch completely sold out within 30 minutes of going on sale.

However, Zoe Liu Zongyuan of the Council on Foreign Relations, a research institute based in the United States, warned the newspaper that the rankings may not be accurate.

Zongyuan made a comparison between someone who has a Trump or Harris neighbor and said Trump voters are more likely to show their MAGA stuff.

“Democrats, people who vote independently, or undecided people are less likely to spend money to buy those things. So I would say that because voters’ behavior has changed and the way they show their enthusiasm has changed, the Yiwu Index may no longer be an accurate indicator.”

According to the Yiwu theory, Trump’s higher sales than those of his competitors may be a sign of expected turnout.

“When everyone said the Democrats, Hilary Clinton, were going to win (in 2016), the index suggested otherwise,” Zongyuan said, emphasizing that the Americans, diplomats and rally-goers are the ones buying these goods, not the Chinese.