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    • What La Niña means for Middle Tennessee
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    What La Niña means for Middle Tennessee

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    Temperatures are dropping in Nashville, signaling the cold return of the winter season. Despite the cold temperatures and frost, Tennesseans can expect a slightly warmer than average winter entering the final stretch of 2024 and January and February 2025.

    Tennesseans can expect above-normal temperatures and precipitation from December through February, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The forecast predicts a 33-40% chance of above average temperatures for Middle Tennessee and a 33-40% chance of above average precipitation for some parts of the region.

    The warmer-than-normal conditions can be attributed to La Niña, the climate pattern that causes periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures. La Niña is predicted to occur in November and is expected to last until March 2025.

    What conditions can Nashville expect this winter? What NOAA predicts

    Nashville and the Middle Tennessee area are expected to experience a 33-40% chance of above average temperatures and about the usual average precipitation for some parts of the region.

    Here are the averages for Nashville from December through February, according to the National Weather Service:

    • December: average highs of 52, average lows of 33, and average precipitation of 4.43 inches
    • January: Average highs of 49, average lows of 30 and an average precipitation of 4 inches
    • February: average highs of 54, average lows of 33, and average precipitation of 4.47 inches

    What is La Niña?

    According to NOAA, winds are stronger than normal during La Niña events, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Upwelling increases off the west coast of America, bringing cold water to the surface. The cold water in the Pacific Ocean then pushes the jet stream north, often leading to drought in the southern United States.

    During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north. La Niña could also lead to a more severe hurricane season, NOAA added.

    What impact will La Niña have on Tennessee? Will it snow?

    Low-pressure systems generally move north of the area during La Niña conditions, often keeping Tennessee in the zone of warmer temperatures and thus providing fuel for thunderstorms, National Weather Service Meteorologist Ryan Husted previously told the Tennessean.

    The Volunteer State is less likely to experience a major winter event such as snow or ice, but extreme winter events can never be ruled out. For example, the La Niña winters of 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 both had above-normal temperatures, but there was still a “substantial” cold snap, Husted said.

    Based on past snowfall events, Music City prefers normal (4.5 inches) and below-normal snowfall during La Niña winters.

    The winters of 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 2022-2023 were all La Niña winters, and they received 5.2 inches of snow (near normal), 9.5 inches of snow (above normal), and 1.2 inches of snow ( below normal) respectively.

    El Niño vs. La Niña: What’s the difference?

    El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather, forest fires, ecosystems and economies. Experts call the systems the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

    Episodes of El Niño and La Niña can last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last for years, according to the National Ocean Service. Both patterns occur on average every two to seven years, but do not occur on a regular schedule.

    According to the National Ocean Service, El Niño is more common than La Niña. While El Niño refers to the warming of ocean surface temperatures, La Niña refers to the cooling of ocean surface temperatures.

    When is the first day of winter?

    Meteorologically speaking, winter begins on December 1. But many recognize the winter solstice, which falls on Saturday, December 21, as the first true day of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the Farmer’s Almanac.

    The first day of winter is Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 3:21 a.m. Central Time. This is also the shortest day of the year, but the longest night, according to the Farmers’ Almanac.

    Contributions: Joyce Orlando

    Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana

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