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The presidential race is incredibly close, with the latest polls showing it is neck and neck.

The two candidates have one major national event scheduled together before Election Day: a 90-minute debate on Tuesday night, hosted by ABC in Philadelphia.

Let’s look at the dynamics here, with four things to watch out for.

1. The preparation

The Trump campaign’s MAGA motto says something about his worldview. But it ignores one of the former president’s most consistent traits: He ignores tradition and instead lets his instincts guide him. Trump’s engine is a self-reinforcing belief in his own abilities, which he places above every other piece of potential preparation. Those instincts reject typical, detailed preparation.

Preparations are underway at the Pennsylvania Convention Center, a day before the presidential debate between the two leading presidential candidates. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

According to campaign sources, the former president is not conducting sham debates. Instead, he is hold “policy time”, something a source told us is a bit of an inside joke that means we’re preparing for the debate. Specifically, the team sits with Trump, usually at a table, and discusses his policy positions and those of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Senior adviser Jason Miller, known for his communications and media work, is leading the preparation, we are told. The footage is simple, mostly a small team at a table, with Trump in a chair.

Former Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is among those helping Trump. A senior campaign official told us Gabbard is there for insight and to make sure there is a woman in the room.

“You can’t have a (debate) discussion when you have seven people facing Harris,” they said.

We also learned that Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., is a key adviser in Trump’s debate preparation, and is asking the former president pointed questions. Gaetz has said that Trump “doesn’t do debate preparation.”

Meanwhile, Harris has been attending a kind of debate prep academy. According to reports by The New York Times and elsewhere, she practiced on a mock debate set complete with television lights and an adviser dressed as Trump, playing the part of Trump.

The two opposing approaches collided on Tuesday evening. In the past, Trump’s relative lack of preparation has appeared to hurt him in early debates with high-profile opponents. See his first debate in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, his first debate in 2020 against Joe Biden, and the 2016 primary debate where he faced Carly Fiorina, who stunned him with a powerful response.

For Democrats, the opposite is true: that Harris could over-prepare and either sound scripted or struggle to deliver an information-rich seminar.

2. The first 30 minutes

There is a lively debate about debates themselves — whether and when they matter. But many agree that the beginning of these debates is the most crucial window.

Two reasons: This is when the largest audience watches and forms the first (and probably second) impression.

During the 2020 election season, The New York Times tracked debate viewing habits, finding that viewership peaked about 15 to 20 minutes into the debate and tailed off after 40 minutes.

For Tuesday’s debate, the first impression factor needs to be turned up to “11.” Not only will this be the first time Harris and Trump debate, it will also be the first time the two have met.

(Remember the first handshake conversation between Sarah Palin and Biden, led by our Gwen Ifill, in 2008?)

What’s more, this will be Harris’ first time debating on the presidential stage during the general election. And it will be her first debate since the 2020 election. Trump hasn’t had many in that time, but this relatively recent one was a clear win for him. (And ultimately, for Harris.)

In the June 2024 Biden-Trump debate, The first 30 minutes were crucial. By this point, it was clear that Biden was not performing well. About 21 minutes into the debate, Trump said, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.”

That impression stuck and ultimately led to the demise of Biden’s re-election bid.

3. Listen to the policy

Both candidates have made a series of commitments and promises, but neither has provided enough explanation of exactly how they plan to achieve their goals.

An example: Trump has offered few details about his mass deportation plan for undocumented immigrants, other than to say he would delegate it to local law enforcement and the National Guard. It’s unclear how he would fund it, exactly which people would be deported first, and what guidelines would govern how law enforcement identifies someone for deportation.

Watch the video in the player above.

Another example: Harris has not yet outlined a comprehensive immigration policy. She has said she will continue to support the bipartisan immigration bill that has been frozen in Congress. But while substantial, that bill largely focuses on asylum and immediate needs at the border. There are a host of other issues in the immigration system, including visas for farm workers and other legal immigration categories.

4. Notice if someone loses their cool

In this age where politics is driven by emotion and personality, perhaps the most influential factor is the elusive sense of who is most in control.

Trump campaign sources believe their candidate’s calmness in the Biden debate was crucial to Biden’s own problems being highlighted. The question is whether Trump can remain “calm Trump” for 90 minutes with Harris.

Harris may not have as much experience in national debates as Trump, but she is a skilled prosecutor who has spent years analyzing opponents’ pressure points in rhetorical confrontations. (One of her first notable moments in the Senate came when she questioned current Chief Justice Brett Kavanaugh.)

Both parties fervently hope that their candidate will remain calm and in control, while challenging the other to overreact.

If you only have one microphone on at a time, that of the person answering the question, you shouldn’t just listen to determine who is the most composed. Pay attention to body language.

Sometimes, when I watch a debate for the second time, I do it mostly with the sound off, which always gives me a glimmer of new perspective.

This is good news if at any point you get tired of listening to the debate. Turn down the volume. You might learn more.