When rumors first emerged in October that North Korean troops were about to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, it was not immediately clear what role they would play.

Their lack of battlefield experience was cited as a major reason why they might simply move into a non-combat role.

But after the US and Ukraine revealed that North Korean forces have already fighting with Ukrainian soldierstheir role in the battle is reevaluated.

Even the number deployed – originally estimated by the Pentagon at around 11,000 – has been debated. According to Bloomberg, unnamed sources believe Pyongyang could actually deploy as many as 100,000 troops.

However, accurate information is difficult to obtain as Moscow and Pyongyang have not responded directly to any of these reports.

So what do we know about the presence of North Korean troops in Russia?

In short, it’s hard to say.

The secretive kingdom may have one of the largest armies in the world, with 1.28 million active soldiers, but – unlike the Russian military – the Korean People’s Army (KPA) has no recent experience in combat operations.

Mark Cancian, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes Pyongyang’s military is “thoroughly indoctrinated, but lacking in readiness.”

However, he says they shouldn’t be considered cannon fodder; adding such a characterization is “Ukrainian bravado”.

Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence agencies have said that many of the troops deployed in Russia are among Pyongyang’s best, drawn from the 11th Corps, also known as the Storm Corps – a unit trained in infiltration, infrastructure sabotage and assassination attempts.

These soldiers are “trained to withstand a high degree of physical pain and psychological torture,” said Michael Madden, a North Korea expert at the Stimson Center in Washington.

“What they lack in battle, they make up for with what they can physically and mentally tolerate,” he adds.

Mr. Cancian agrees that “if these are special operations forces, they will be much better prepared than the average North Korean unit.”

“Furthermore, it appears that the Russians are giving them additional training, probably on the special circumstances of the war in Ukraine,” he adds.

This appears to be supported by the emergence of videos on social media showing men, believed to be North Koreans, wearing Russian uniforms in what appear to be military training facilities in Russia.

And as the war in Ukraine approaches its third year, these North Korean troops may be among the “most capable” troops available to Russia, says Chun In-bum, a retired lieutenant general in the South Korean army.

Moscow is recruiting at least 20,000 new soldiers every month to bolster the war effort, killing or wounding an average of more than 1,000 Russian soldiers a day, according to NATO and military officials in the West.

“(Russia) sent troops to the front without proper training. Compared to such recruits, North Koreans are trained and motivated. They are currently untested in combat, but that will not be the case anytime soon,” said Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Chun.

Still, some experts believe the obvious language barrier and unfamiliarity with Russian systems would complicate any combat role, suggesting instead that Pyongyang’s forces would be tapped for their technical and construction capabilities.

Given these drawbacks, what’s in this deal for the two countries?

Observers say Moscow needs manpower, while Pyongyang needs money and technology.

“For North Korea, (such deployments) are a good way to make money,” said Andrei Lankov, director of the Korea Risk Group.

South Korean intelligence estimates this amount at $2,000 per soldier per month, with most of this money expected to end up in the state treasury.

Pyongyang could also gain access to Russian military technology, which Moscow would otherwise be reluctant to transfer, Lankov added.

Moscow’s manpower problems have been widely reported, with the US estimating that some 600,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin – for the third time since the war began – issues an order to expand his army.

It has also pursued workforce strategies that “minimize domestic political impact,” such as offering bonuses to recruits who volunteer and hiring foreigners with the promise of citizenship, CSIS’s Mr. Cancian said.

“With Russia reportedly suffering more than a thousand battlefield casualties, reducing its own losses could go some way to easing pressure on the Putin regime,” agreed Lami Kim, professor of security studies at the Daniel K Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.

These developments, which come at a time when tensions on the Korean Peninsula have reached their highest level in years, are causing concern in Seoul.

In October, the North blew up parts of two roads connecting it with South Korea, days after accusing Seoul of flying drones into the North’s capital Pyongyang.

That came after the two countries engaged in a… tit-for-tat balloon campaignwith thousands of waste and propaganda balloons flying into each other’s territories. The Koreas have done that too suspended a pact aimed at easing military tensions between themshortly after North Korea said the South was now “enemy number one.”

So it makes sense that South Korea would feel uneasy if the North were to acquire new military power amid these tensions. After all, the troops in South Korea have not fought in a major conflict since the Korean War.

According to Mr Madden and Mr Cancian, North Korean forces are believed to be deployed around the disputed Kursk border area, which Moscow is trying to retake from Ukraine.

The South fears that “its adversary could boast more hostile capabilities” as a result of the battlefield experience its soldiers would gain, says Lt. Gen. (ret.) Chun.

Although South Korea has long accused the North of supplying weapons to Russia, the country says the current situation goes beyond just the transfer of military equipment.

It has also expressed “grave concerns” about a pact between Pyongyang and Moscow promising the two provinces will help each other in the event of “aggression” against either country.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has reiterated – at least three times in the past two months – that the South would consider helping Ukraine “for defensive purposes.” If this happens, it would represent a shift from the South’s long-standing policy of not supplying weapons to countries engaged in active conflict.