The Pac-12 is back.

Well, almost.

The Conference of Champions is on the road to rebuilding, starting with Thursday’s acquisition of four Mountain West schools: Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Fresno State. They will begin play in the new league in the fall of 2026.

That brings Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould’s tally to six members, with Oregon State and Washington State. She needs at least two more additions to reach the NCAA’s minimum threshold to qualify as an FBS conference, and she has just months to do so. The Pac-12 must reach eight members by July 2026, the end of the NCAA’s two-year grace period that gives a league time to reform.

That seems like a long time. In the world of such huge and expensive moves, it isn’t. The Pac-12 would rather have its entire membership while negotiating a new television deal, something they’d probably want to lock in as soon as possible. Every network would rather know what they’re buying before they buy it.

In its statement announcing the new additions Thursday, the Pac-12 laid out criteria for additional new members. But as is often the case, brand strength, on-field success and television markets will be more decisive than anything else. That said, there are other factors to consider, such as overall membership. You don’t want to spread yourself too thin and acquire programs that don’t add enough value.

Remember that television contracts are the biggest source of income for sports departments. You have to divide television money — often evenly — among your members. With each new member, you reduce the amount of the whole.

There’s something else to consider: exit and penalty fees for potential new members. These can be costly, and despite the narrative that the Pac-12 has endless cash to pay for all these transactions, that’s not the case. Yes, the conference has more than $100 million in new revenue from bowl contracts, CFP distribution and NCAA tournament units, but it uses much of that funding for operational purposes.

But enough about all that. Who else could or would the Pac-12 invite? The league wants to be known as the “best of the rest” outside of the power four leagues. Who would agree to the move? And what would be the knock-on effect on the other G5 conferences and college sports as a whole?

ACC and Big 12

The Pac-12’s first option was not to rebuild. It was a fine option and one they were comfortable with, but it certainly wasn’t a priority. Oregon State and Washington State’s best option was the same as every other school looking for a home after Washington and Oregon left for the Big Ten: they wanted to join an established power conference.

Overtures to the Big 12 and ACC yielded nothing. They showed little to no interest, as they did last fall when the leagues brought in Colorado, Utah, Arizona State and Arizona (Big 12) and Stanford and Cal (ACC).

There was hope, sometimes even openly expressed, that a major realignment in the ACC — FSU, Clemson and others leaving — would set off a domino effect that would benefit the Pac-12’s future. Maybe they could serve as replacements, forming an ACC West Coast wing with Stanford and Cal? Or maybe the Cardinal and Bears, in an ACC left in disarray, would be willing to join them in their rebuilding mission?

Neither happened.

That leaves them here — rebuilding with the addition of Mountain West schools. And before you ask, Stanford and Cal have signed the ACC grant of rights, tying them to the league through 2036, as the current deal is written (this isn’t new information and was reported last fall when the two programs joined the conference).

For now, as the ACC contract is written, they are not candidates for a Pac-12 rebuild. But if the ACC starts losing members someday, could they be? Sure.

That’s not the case yet, and it would likely take a catastrophic event to convince the two to each turn down millions in ACC television revenue to return to the Pac-12. While they’re not yet receiving full ACC shares, they will eventually, and those amounts are expected to be significantly more than the Pac-12’s television value (as much as three times).

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American Athletics

If the Pac-12’s next preferred targets were in the Mountain West, they likely would have picked them this week.

They didn’t — a sign that they may first look to Eastern candidates. That includes a host of programs, many of which are now members of the American Athletic Conference, for years the premier Group of Five competition in college athletics.

The AAC has the most attractive members from a TV market, brand equity and on-field success, including Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, North Texas, Rice and even one in Florida (South Florida). The Texas schools would make strong travel partners with each other. The same goes for Tulane and Rice, two top academic institutions that are close to each other (though Rice is a tough sell).

If given the opportunity (not everyone will be interested in the Pac-12 (this is speculative)), these schools will have to decide whether moving to a conference on the other side of the country, in a completely different region and with a different cultural fit, is worth the brand and television value of the Pac-12.

The problem: We don’t know exactly what the TV value is, but the Pac-12 estimates it’s higher than the Group of Five’s best deal, the American, which pays out about $8-10 million annually to its original members.

If the Pac-12 is $10-12 million per school, is that worth moving across the country? What about $15 million? That last number seems high, but who knows.

Don’t expect new AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti to be averse to being proactive. According to those familiar with his thinking, Pernetti is interested in pursuing Mountain West programs like Air Force. Pernetti already has Army and Navy in his conference. Air Force is a sensible and attractive addition, and the AAC could offer more in distribution than the Mountain West, which costs about $5-6 million.

But the American isn’t the only league with teams of interest to the Pac-12. The Sun Belt has Texas State, a rising athletic department with a rising football program, a large student body and a location just outside of the bustling Austin metro.

Something to keep in mind in all of this: The Pac-12 lost its status as an autonomous/powerful conference, a moniker that gave it greater voting power within the NCAA governing body and more revenue in the CFP distribution model.

While it’s unlikely the status will be earned back, there is a “look-in” provision in the CFP contract after the 2027 playoffs that could be triggered to reevaluate revenue sharing. The Pac-12, if stable enough with enough brands, could make an argument for more CFP money.

Mountain West

What if the Pac-12 is held back in the East?

That leaves them little choice but to turn their attention back to the members of Mountain West.

Many people around college athletics were surprised that UNLV was not included in the first phase of the Pac-12 expansion. Located in a major city and with a football program on the way, the potential is there.

But there are politics at play. According to those familiar with the discussions, separating the two — the University of Nevada and UNLV — is a hurdle. That doesn’t mean it can’t be done. And maybe they can move to the Pac-12 together at some point. Or will the hurdle be cleared and UNLV will go it alone?

The Pac-12’s interest in other Mountain West programs is unclear and, again, there’s likely a reason they didn’t invite them in the first phase.

But the question is, what is the Mountain West area doing?

Commissioner Gloria Nevarez isn’t sitting still. In fact, the league has been vetting potential members, dating back to last year when San Diego State and Boise State were considered for joining the old Pac-12.

New Mexico State, new to Conference USA, makes sense geographically. And UTEP, also in CUSA. Both programs would likely see their annual distribution double. Could they even get a signing bonus? The Mountain West is entitled to as much as $110 million in exit and penalty money from the departing four members and the Pac-12.

Tarleton State, an up-and-coming FCS program with a lot of money and potential, is also a possible option. And what about FCS teams like North Dakota State, South Dakota, Montana State and Montana?

Keep in mind that the NCAA recently raised the induction fee for players transferring from FCS to FBS to a whopping $5 million.

Basketball schools

Back to the Pac-12.

There are plenty of West Coast basketball brands that could appeal to any new Pac-12 conference. The easy one is Gonzaga, a program with a storied basketball tradition that regularly advances to the Sweet 16 and has made two Final Four appearances since 2017.

Power conferences have long flirted with the Zags, which don’t offer football. The latest run came via the Big 12, which seriously discussed the school last year before deciding against the addition.

Gonzaga also makes sense geographically, as it is just an hour’s drive north of Washington State’s campus. There are other programs to the west that are enjoying basketball success. Saint Mary’s, for example, is located in Moraga, California.

But the Pac-12 doesn’t want to get too big because that would dilute the revenue sharing of other programs.

And so the Pac-12’s quest to rebuild continues. It will almost certainly move east, then west, and then… well, who knows.

Kirk Schulz, the president of Washington State and a key leader in the reconstruction effort, told Yahoo Sports in an interview earlier this week that more movement is on the way.

“In five years, when these rights go up, there will likely be more shuffling. How do I prepare Washington state for choices in the future?”