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    • Who is winning? What polls say now in Pennsylvania, swing states
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    Who is winning? What polls say now in Pennsylvania, swing states

    Vaseline Posted on

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    Election Day is now just eleven days away and swing states have swung in the polls this past week, including the national polls.

    Most states consistently vote blue or red, like the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over again between 2000 and 2016, but some lean differently in each election. These are called swing states or battleground states.

    Both political campaigns are spending their time, money and energy in the critical battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin – where the race is so close that it really could go either way.

    Pennsylvania is seen as vital to winning the White House, with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hoping to secure the 19 Electoral College votes on election night.

    The political climate of recent months has made history and headlines across the country and is likely to impact undecided voters or cause others to reconsider their votes as tension mounts:

    • President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and fully endorsed Harris
    • Assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, followed by a second attempt that was foiled before the trigger was pulled
    • One of the most watched presidential debates and a resulting vice presidential debate
    • Catastrophic Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton devastated the US mainland
    • The resulting chaos boils over into the Middle East conflict as the war between Ukraine and Russia rages on

    So who will be the 47th President of the United States? Will Trump return to the White House with JD Vance at his side or will Harris be our first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?

    Here are the latest updates on each swing state’s polls and odds compared to the national polls and odds – as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, November 5.

    Who is leading in the polls of the swing states and is the odds favoring them?

    • ABC News project 538 shows Harris ahead in national polls at +1.7%, Harris 48.1% to Trump’s 46.4%; Pennsylvania Trump has a +0.3% lead; Arizona Trump has a +1.8% lead; Georgia Trump has a +1.5% lead; Michigan Harris has a +0.7% lead; Nevada Harris has a +0.1% lead; North Carolina Trump has a +1.2% lead; And Wisconsin Harris has a lead of +0.2. Harris’ lead has narrowed since last week’s polls.
    • 270towin shows that Harris leads Trump by 0.6% in national polls Pennsylvania poll Trump has just 0.2% lead over Harris; Arizona Trump has a lead of 1.4%; Georgia Trump has a lead of 1.1%; Michigan Harris has a lead of 0.6%; Nevada Harris has a lead of 0.3%; North Carolina Trump has a lead of 1.2%, and Wisconsin Harris has a lead of 0.2%. Trump has taken a marginal lead since last week’s polls.
    • Realclearpolling shows that the bets between Trump and Harris are equal Pennsylvania shows odds in Trump’s favor at +0.6; Arizona shows odds +1.5 in favor of Trump; Georgia shows +2.2 in Trump’s favor; Michigan shows +0.2 in Trump’s favor; Nevada shows +0.7 in favor of Trump; North Carolina shows +0.8 in favor of Trump and Wisconsin shows +0.2 in Trump’s favor. The chances in the national polls have remained the same, while Trump maintains a marginal lead in the swing state compared to last week’s polls.
    • Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, is setting high expectations for the betting public in the national race with Trump favoring 64.3% over Harris’ 35.5%. Pennsylvania shows Trump favored 61% over Harris’ 39%. Arizona shows that Trump was favored by 72% over Harris’ 29%. Georgia shows that Trump was favored by 72% over Harris’ 29%. Michigan shows that Trump was favored by 55% over Harris’s 46%. Nevada shows that Trump was favored by 65% ​​over Harris’s 35%. North Carolina shows that Trump was favored by 68% over Harris’s 32%. Wisconsin shows that Trump was favored by 56% over Harris’s 44%. All bets have shifted in Trump’s favor compared to last week’s poll results.

    Polls and odds are constantly changing. These figures were shown as of Friday, October 25, 2024 at 9:00 am

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    We spoke to voters in key swing states that could decide the election

    USA TODAY Network reporters talk to voters in seven key swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election.

    How accurate have the election odds or polls been in the past presidential elections?

    According to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the gambling favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

    The polling track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different audiences can often have higher margins of error.

    According to Pew Research, confidence in public opinion polls has suffered because of the mistakes in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

    In both general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.

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