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    • Who will win the presidential election? What the Harris Trump polls say
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    Who will win the presidential election? What the Harris Trump polls say

    Vaseline Posted on

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    There are only 21 days left in the countdown to Election Day. The campaigns are in high gear because the race is changing according to the polls and odds over the past seven weeks.

    The presidential candidates, their vice presidential running mates and even spouses have taken the divide and rule approach by campaigning across the country.

    The political climate of recent months has made history and headlines ahead of this race:

    So the big question looms: “Who will be the 47th President of the United States?”

    Here’s what the polls, the odds and one historian have said over the past seven weeks — and how they’ve changed — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, November 5.

    Story continues below photo gallery

    Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?

    • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading 48.5% in national polls compared to Trump’s 46.1% compared to last week, Harris was 48% to Trump 47.3% compared to Harris 48.5% to Trump 45.8% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% to Trump 45.6% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% compared to Trump 45.3% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% compared to Trump 44.4% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% compared to Trump at 43.9% six weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% versus Trump at 43.7% seven weeks ago.
    • 270towing shows Harris leading national polls over Trump by 2.5%, up from last week’s lead of 2.8% compared to Trump, compared to Harris 3.7% compared to Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris compared to Trump 3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% compared to Trump four weeks ago, compared with Harris 0.9% versus Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% versus Trump six weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% versus Trump seven weeks ago.
    • realclearpolling shows the betting odds in favor of Harris at +1.7 compared to a draw between Harris and Trump last weekcompared to Harris favored with a spread of +1.8 over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris favored at +2.3 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris +2.0 over Trump four weeks ago ago, compared to Harris +1.1 versus Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 versus Trump six weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 versus Trump seven weeks ago.
    • Polymarkt, a crypto trading platform expresses the betting public’s odds, in favor of Trump with 56.3% chance over Harris 43.1% chancecompared to last week’s Trump 52.8% compared to Harris 46.7%, compared to Harris favored over Trump two weeks ago by 2%, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris above Trump by 2% four weeks ago, compared to Harris above Trump by 1% five weeks ago or compared to Trump above Harris by 4% six weeks ago or compared to Harris leading by 1 percentage point seven weeks ago compared to Trump.

    Polls and odds are constantly changing. These figures were shown as of Tuesday, October 15, 2024 at 9:00 am

    What is true? What is false? Sign up for USA TODAY’s Checking the Facts newsletter for all the answers.

    What did Allan Lichtman predict for the 2024 presidential election?

    Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

    The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of thirteen “keys” to make his choices, which range from economic indicators to the candidates’ charisma.

    Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the past half century, except the 2000 race in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

    How accurate have the election odds or polls been in the past presidential elections?

    According to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the gambling favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

    The polling track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different audiences can often have higher margins of error.

    According to Pew Research, confidence in public opinion polls has suffered due to mistakes in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

    In both general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.

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