Louisville (6-3, 4-2 ACC) upset No. 8 Tigers (6-2, 5-1 ACC) at Memorial Stadium, winning 33-21. Entering Saturday, the Tigers had won 22 straight home night games since 2013, the second-longest active streak in the country. Despite coming off an open date, Clemson played out of sync on offense, defense and special teams, and the Cardinals walked into Memorial Stadium and took over.

“There are no excuses. None,” Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said. ‘It has nothing to do with it. I just let myself be outcoached today.’

Clemson was a virtual lock in the CFP projections to end the three-year absence, favored to win its remaining games. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Tigers entered the Louisville game with an 18.1% chance of winning the ACC, the third highest, and a 30.8% chance of making the 12-team CFP, the second highest in the conference.

However, Saturday’s home loss to an unranked opponent will dramatically lower these percentages. For Clemson to possibly land one of the seven at-large bids, it had to keep winning. A big reason is how the schedule stacks up compared to the other top teams in FBS. Clemson’s strong schedule ranked 75th out of 134 schools entering the match in Louisville. Now it has to hope that the top-ranked teams lose.