Hurricane Rafael formed over the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday evening and is expected to rip through parts of Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 3 storm after quickly strengthening over warm waters. But once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, hurricane forecasters and models remain divided on what will happen next.

Rafael’s track forecast through the Gulf has shifted back and forth in recent days, sometimes showing the storm eventually heading toward the Texas-Louisiana border, and sometimes pointing east toward Plaquemines Parish.

Wednesday’s 10 a.m. forecast from the National Hurricane Center included perhaps the most dramatic track shift yet, with Rafael making a sharp turn toward the Texas-Mexico border shortly after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Still, NHC forecasters said there is “greater than normal uncertainty” about Rafael’s intensity later this week, and that it is too early to say what, if any, impacts the storm could have on the Gulf Coast.

“A lot of the disagreement seems to be around how strong a high-pressure ridge north of Rafael will be,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.

A stronger ridge north of Rafael would send it to the left across the Gulf of Mexico, a pattern favored by the European hurricane model, Klotzbach said.

That turn would put Rafael on a path through the southern Gulf, allowing him to avoid some of the wind shear and dry air in the northern Gulf, conditions that would help weaken the storm.

“This would likely keep Rafael around longer as a stronger storm, but it could also mean the storm never hits the U.S.,” Klotzbach said.

But another hurricane model, the Global Forecast System, has largely favored a track toward the northern Gulf Coast, with the storm generally focused on Louisiana.

In that case, Klotzbach said, the storm would encounter strong wind shear and dry air in the northern Gulf, causing it to weaken significantly before reaching land.

Forecasters are still unsure of Rafael’s track because it is not entirely clear where the steering ridge will build and set up in the coming days, NHC hurricane specialist Philippe Papin said.

“It has to do with the flow pattern of the United States, where there is quite a bit of uncertainty,” Papin said.

Papin said the NHC is requesting additional data from weather stations across the country this week and will send a plane on a surveillance mission over the Gulf on Wednesday to collect more data on weather conditions in the US.

Once that additional data is collected and incorporated into the hurricane models, Papin said forecasters hope they can fine-tune Rafael’s path through the Gulf and its potential intensity.

As of Wednesday morning, the ridge was forecast to develop westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days, likely causing Rafael to turn west and move over the southern Gulf of Mexico.