“If we were to dry out like we do further east and continue to have a dry winter, then yes, there could be a potential for that,” Aaron Reynolds, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Buffalo, told The Buffalo News. Thursday. “There could be potential through this route.”

The entire state is under a drought watch, a precursor to a developing drought, with New York City, the northern suburbs and the Hudson Valley under a more severe drought warning, according to the state Department of Environmental Conservation. The state’s driest October on record preceded the wildfires in Ulster, Orange and Sullivan counties, which Governor Kathy Hochul said were 90% contained on Wednesday.

On November 12, the governor implemented a statewide ban on wood burning that will remain in effect until at least November 30. For now, the DEC Division of Forest Protection has rated Western New York at low risk for fire danger. And weather experts say the rain falling across the region will help reduce the risk of wildfires.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, which publishes a map of drought conditions across the country, showed the Hudson Valley counties, all of New York City and eastern Long Island are experiencing “severe drought” intensity. By comparison, parts of Erie and Chautauqua counties showed “moderate drought” and “abnormally dry” intensities. All Allegany, Cattaraugus, Genesee, Orleans and Niagara counties showed “abnormally dry” intensity.

The monitor is jointly managed by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“It’s not as dry here as it is upstate, but it could definitely get drier. It could get wetter,” said Elizabeth Thomas, associate professor of geology at the University at Buffalo. She said the warmer-than-usual fall has caused more drying out of sticks and leaves, known to fuel fires.

“Anytime there’s a lot of fuel on the ground — all these leaves just fall off the trees and they get really dry — obviously there can be ignitions that cause wildfires,” Thomas said. “Temperatures will only continue to rise in the coming years and decades as we continue to realize the impact of human-released heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. We have less certainty about precipitation, but it is likely that summers will become drier in the future, potentially leading to more forest fires.”

June Wang, director of the New York State Mesonet at State University at Albany, said climate change plays a major role in why wildfires are becoming more common in the Northeast, according to the university’s website. (A mesonet is a network of automated weather stations.) Wang said previous studies have shown that the frequency and severity of firefights has increased in recent decades and is expected to escalate as warming increases.

“The risk of wildfires increases with above-normal temperatures, longer and severe droughts, a drier atmosphere and drier vegetation,” Wang said. “As the climate warms, we expect more extreme and rare severe weather events, such as wildfires in the Northeast.”

The Hudson Valley wildfires led to the death of Dariel Vasquez, 18, a state parks employee who died while responding to a fire in Orange County. Hochul called the ongoing blaze the largest fire in the state since 2008.

“We’ve never seen anything of this magnitude,” Hochul said. “This is the time when people need to be very, very careful about what they do so that we don’t add to the challenges that we’re facing now and try to stop the spread.”

Under the drought watch, the state is encouraging residents to take shorter showers; install water-saving sanitary facilities; wash cars less often; only wash full loads of laundry and dishes; reusing water collected in rain barrels, dehumidifiers and air conditioners to water plants; use brooms instead of hoses outside on sidewalks; and repair pipes, toilets, hoses and taps.

The state also advised New Yorkers to use existing campfire rings if possible; build campfires away from branches, steep slopes, stumps, dry grass and leaves; Never leave a campfire unattended and drown the fire and burning coals with water.

It was a high-pressure ridge that pushed warm air along the East Coast, creating the “perfect scenario” for drought and wildfires still burning in the Hudson Valley, according to Reynolds.

“There’s always concern when you have such a dry fall,” Reynolds said, noting that temperatures from September to early November sometimes reached the 70s and low 80s without precipitation. “Here we were kind of spared by the fact that we had a little precipitation… we were lucky and got a little precipitation sporadically during those months. Where they didn’t understand further east. So it was just a combination of continued dry conditions and that set the stage for the fall bushfire season.”