Some Pennsylvania voters may be affected by rainy weather on Election Day, depending on where their polling place is located in the state.

As Election Day approaches, meteorologists are tightening their forecasts for November 5 weather across the country, and rainy weather could keep some voters from going to the polls in northwestern Pennsylvania. Voters in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will likely decide who wins the White House. Recent polls show an extremely tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

And while more than 1.6 million ballots have already been cast in Pennsylvania due to early voting and mail-in ballots, those who wait until Election Day may experience rainy weather.

Depending on the speed of a storm system moving through the Pacific Northwest and across the country, some voters in northwestern Pennsylvania could experience rain Tuesday as they try to cast their ballots, AccuWeather reported. However, newer forecasts show the rain will miss Pennsylvania altogether.

Studies show benefits in rainy weather GOP

Bad weather has had consequences in the past for people who wanted to cast their votes. In 2007, a study from the University of Georgia, the University of California, Merced and the University of Pittsburgh found that rainy weather deterred Democrats more than Republicans. Voter turnout in elections fell by 1 percent per centimeter of rain. Snowfall also reduced voter turnout, and the elderly were more likely to be affected.

“In addition to its direct effect on election turnout, we showed that bad weather can influence election outcomes by significantly reducing the vote share of Democratic presidential candidates, to the benefit of Republicans,” the study said.

A more recent study, in the journal Electoral studies in 2023, it showed that rainy weather is likely to affect young voters in their mid-20s or younger, reducing their turnout by almost 6 percent.

A 2018 study published in Sage Journals also found that rainfall “decreases the Democratic candidate’s vote share by as much as 2.08 percentage points, while is increasing the Republican candidate’s vote share by 1.00 percentage points.”

However, Republican strategist Mark Weaver, who lives in Ohio, said so Newsweek that both Republican and Democratic voters feel obliged to vote in this election and that it is unlikely that either candidate will benefit from the bad weather in the swing states. Unless there is a catastrophic event, Weaver doubts the rain will deter members of both parties from voting on Election Day.

He also said Trump supporters feel an “exuberance and energy” for their candidate that is “unparalleled in modern American politics.”

While these voters may be less likely to vote during other election cycles due to bad weather, that won’t be the case this year with Trump on the ballot, Weaver said. “His supporters will move mountains to get to the polls because they see him as the solution to the problems facing America.”

Meanwhile, Weaver said, Harris’ supporters are motivated more by their hatred of Trump than their love for Harris.

“Given how energized both parties are this year, and given how common early voting has become, I don’t know if weather will play as much of a role as it would in any other year,” Weaver said.

Harris could benefit from this, given the support base

As for this Tuesday, Democratic strategist Carly Cooperman said Newsweek that bad weather could benefit Harris at the ballot box.

“It’s possible that bad weather will cause low-propensity voters — those who historically don’t vote or those who are less engaged — to stay home,” Cooperman said. “These are voters Trump is courting and how he is building his support beyond his base, so this would impact Trump’s vote. Older voters may also be more likely to stay home in bad weather, but older voters are more divided between Trump and Harris. and many of these voters also vote early.

“Harris’s base of support tends to be among more mainstream voter groups, so she will be less affected by bad weather,” Cooperman said.

Who won Pennsylvania in 2020?

In 2020, Trump lost to President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by more than 80,000 votes, although Trump won the state in 2016.

On Friday, poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight showed Trump leading Harris in Pennsylvania by 47.9 percent to 47.6 percent.

Rain is also forecast for Michigan and Wisconsin, although forecasts show dry weather for North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.