Hurricane Rafael’s path has shifted slightly westward, with the storm now focused on southern Texas after it enters the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

Rafael became a hurricane on Tuesday evening, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologists expect the storm to continue strengthening into a major hurricane before making landfall in Cuba later on Wednesday. According to the most recent NHC update issued Wednesday morning, Rafael had maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, making it a Category 2 hurricane. It will weaken as it passes over Cuba, but emerge in the Gulf and maintain hurricane status.

The storm has prompted a slew of hurricane and tropical storm warnings, including in the Florida Keys as it passes nearby.

Originally, NHC forecasts showed Rafael targeting Louisiana, although forecasts were unclear whether it would maintain tropical storm strength or greater upon arrival.

Now the path has shifted and the storm is heading towards Texas after moving further through the Gulf of Mexico. Experts expect Rafael to maintain hurricane strength through Saturday morning. After Saturday, forecasts are unclear, although meteorologists expect the storm to have weakened to a tropical storm.

While there is a new potential destination on the storm’s horizon, Rafael’s extended journey through the Gulf could contribute to its weakening.

Obstacles in the path of Hurricane Rafael

NHC spokesperson Erica Grow Cei says Newsweek that the waters of the Gulf of Mexico are cooling below the 80 degree threshold for hurricane strengthening, adding that Rafael will not undergo rapid intensification as it travels through the Gulf as Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton did, adding to the storms’ destruction in Florida and the US South.

Wind shear in the area is also expected to be strong, which could help resolve the storm.

Chance of historic landfall

If Rafael remains organized long enough to make landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast, it would be a first. A tropical storm or hurricane has never made landfall in November in Louisiana, where Rafael originally appeared to be heading, or in Texas, as strong winds and cool waters tend to clear storms before they hit this time of year .

The NHC cautioned that it is too early to know whether Rafael will impact the U.S. beyond the Florida Keys, although experts are urging people on the Gulf Coast to remain vigilant.

Expected Rafael effects

Hurricane Rafael will have “life-threatening” consequences for Cuba. A storm surge of up to 4 meters high is expected in southern Cuba, with heavy rainfall of up to 30 centimeters on higher ground in Cuba.

The storm is also expected to produce some tornadoes, which could impact the Florida Keys and far southwestern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday night.