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Will it snow? Bad forecasts loom over travel
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Will it snow? Bad forecasts loom over travel

Travel can be challenging and the best seats for the 2024 New York Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade may be in your living room as storms threaten to bring chaos to much of the country over the long holiday weekend.

In the West, chances of heavy rain and snow increase Tuesday as “another atmospheric river event arrives” in parts of central California, the National Weather Service said in a Sunday forecast.

Not all holiday weather news is bad. The Pacific Northwest, which has played host to a series of grumpy atmospheric rivers and a bomb cyclone in recent days, should finally settle down, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys told USA TODAY on Sunday as the national weather picture for the holidays sharpened.

“It would be a mixed score for the country if I gave it a score,” Roys said. “There will certainly be areas of concern.”

One of the most pressing concerns will be at Denver International Airport, where snowfall could delay travelers getting in and out on what should be one of the biggest air travel days of the year. Roys said the current forecast of 1 to 7 inches of snow could be enough to cause flight delays on Wednesday.

Roys said Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Ohio and Nashville, Tennessee, could see snow or rain that is expected to hamper air and car travel.

Travel details are also in the forecast

Anything that blocks flights would come at a historically bad time.

Last week, the Transportation Security Administration said it expects to experience the busiest Thanksgiving travel period ever. It estimates that its agents will screen 18.3 million people from Tuesday to December 2. That would represent an increase of 6% compared to 2023.

Passenger volume has reached record highs in 2024, up 17% since 2022, the TSA said in a statement. TSA Administrator David Pekoske said the 10 busiest travel days in TSA history all occurred in 2024, adding that “we expect this trend to continue.”

Snow for the Sierra Nevadas, the Great Lakes, in the northeast

Some areas will see heavy snowfall. Ahead of the long weekend, parts of the Sierra Nevada could see as much as 2 to 3 meters of the white stuff fall in the coming days. Travelers may have to wait until the storm passes, Roys said.

“Travelers trying to get through Donner Pass on Monday and Tuesday may find it very difficult,” Roys said. “After that, barring some showers in Los Angeles, there should be very good travel conditions in the West.”

Parts of the inland Northeast will get snow on Thursday, but coastal cities from Boston to Washington, DC appear set to receive nothing but rain. On Black Friday, lake effect snow could take its toll in places like Grand Rapids, Michigan, South Bend, Indiana, Syracuse, New York and Erie, Pennsylvania.

“Early indications are that it could be a significant snowfall,” Roys said. “We cannot rule out at least one meter of snow in some places, even though it will be very localized.”

Low gas prices could mean record travel

That’s troubling news considering 79.9 million people from AAA projects will travel 50 miles or more from their homes for Thanksgiving between Tuesday and Monday, December 2. That represents 1.7 million more travelers than last year and 2 million more than in 2019.

“Thanksgiving is the busiest holiday for travel, and this year we expect to set new records across the board, from driving to flying and cruising,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel.

Low gasoline prices are expected to drive record travel, with the national average possibly falling below $3.00 for the first time since 2021.

‘Messy Thanksgiving Trips’: Thanksgiving week weather forecast by region

Looking for a holiday flight deal? Success.

Sorry, there aren’t many great deals on flights this time of year.

The holidays are an extremely popular time to fly, and airlines are taking advantage of that to increase fares and make some money. It’s basic supply and demand.

But it’s not all doom and gloom for winter travel. A little flexibility can help you get, if not good, at least better prices. And of course there are great flight deals at other times. But it may already be too late to strike a deal on flights before Christmas, experts say.

“The reality is that when travelers book vacation rates, they often book at the last minute and book on the most popular departure and return dates,” Hayley Berg, chief economist at online booking platform Hopper, told USA TODAY. We recommend starting the holiday planning process early and expect to book both Thanksgiving and Christmas trips in October.” Read more here.

Zach Wichter

Thanksgiving parades face challenges in the Northeast

The details of the storm remain unclear, but gusts of more than 20 mph are possible from the Tennessee Valley to the Virginia coastline and into the Northeast. The winds could wreak havoc on major parades planned for New York City, Philadelphia and elsewhere, AccuWeather warned.

“Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York looks pretty wet,” Roys said. “It’s worth seeing if it gets so windy that they can’t put out the balloons.”

Thanksgiving in numbers: See the best and worst times to travel during a record year

The weather for the return trip remains a question mark

The weather pattern over the extended holiday weekend is a mess.

A fast track system could open the door to drier weather the weekend after Thanksgiving, but as the storm creeps it could linger along the Northeast Coast for several days, according to AccuWeather. That could once again hamper air and highway traffic as holiday travelers head home.

“We just have to see how the storm evolves,” Roys said.

Contributions: Alexa Juliana Ard

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Thanksgiving weather forecast: Travel can be challenging