The contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists who aim for the top of the world Billboard charts and the strategies behind their efforts. This week for the upcoming December 7, 2024 Billboard Hot 100, we’ll see if a big surprise drop will halt Shaboozey’s historic run at the top of the chart.

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): The biggest country crossover hit of 2024 is now also officially the longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 of all time — although, at least for now, it still has to share status with Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus with “Old Stadsweg.” Both songs have now spent 19 weeks at the top of the Hot 100, with Lady Gaga’s ‘Bar Song’ and Bruno Mars’ ‘Die With a Smile’ holding off this frame to match the historic milestone – helped by the added exposure of an eventful night at the CMA Awards, albeit one marked by more controversy than probably expected.

And it’s a good thing for Shabozoey that he got his 19th week – because not only is the gap between “A Bar Song” and “Die With a Smile” getting smaller, but things are about to get very crowded at the top of the Hot 100.

Kendrick Lamar, “Fighting” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar shocked the world on Friday (November 22) by surprisingly releasing his new album GNX at noon, with no previous indication that an album (or really new music in general) was particularly imminent. The 12-song set follows his biggest moment in the spotlight earlier this year with his extremely high-profile Drake feud, which was essentially bookended by a pair of Hot 100 chart-toppers: “Like That,” for which he appeared as a guest rapper. about Future and Metro Boomin’s We still don’t trust you album and his own ‘Not Like Us’, an instant hip-hop all-timer.

He may now get his third hit parade of the year. It is not surprising that GNX has taken over streaming services this past week – five days after its release, the album’s twelve songs are still in the top twelve of Apple Music’s real-time chart, and as of Tuesday the album was in the entire top eight on Spotify’s Daily Top US Songs List. The latter is led by ‘Squabble Up’, the album’s second track and presumed first single, which samples Debbie Deb’s 1984 freestyle classic ‘When I Hear Music’ and now has its own music video, released on Monday .

“Squabble Up” is expected to lead the way for Kendrick’s new set on the chart next week – and with its robust streaming numbers, it should have a good shot at taking the top spot – although it may have some competition from one of his albums. friends. “TV Off,” featuring Gunplay, has also become a fan favorite from the LP, helped by its heavily “Not Like Us”-esque beat and the virus-friendly “MUSTAARRRRRRD!” halfway through the song, the name of the song’s star producer cries. It’s taken from “Squabble Up” on top of Apple Music and is just below it on Spotify – so if it continues to grow, it could be a real challenger to “Squabble” next week.

Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): “Die With a Smile” has now come within striking distance of the number 1 position on the Hot 100 a few times, but still has to cross the threshold to become Bruno Mars’ ninth number 1 and Lady Gaga’s sixth on the to become a hit list. Unfortunately for the superstar duo, things will likely only get tougher for “Smile” in the coming weeks, because even if it finally manages to close the gap for good with “A Bar Song,” it now has a plethora of Kendrick Lamar. songs and an avalanche of holiday songs that want to pass it on the charts. However, the song’s airplay is still slowly rising, so if Bruno and Gaga still have a card to play for the song, that top spot will likely be within reach for a while. (They may have to wait until 2025 to use it at this time.)

Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): The Queen of Christmas is officially out of hibernation. “All I Want for Christmas Is You” re-enters the Hot 100 this week at No. 16, and with Thanksgiving just around the corner, the run-up to the holidays will soon be in full swing. The preponderance of expected high debuts from Lamar’s GNX – it could launch half of its tracklist into the top 10, possibly even more – it could keep it on the fringes of the top 10 next week, but it’s only a matter of time before “All I Want” (which has been at the top for 14 weeks) since 2019) is a serious challenge for the Hot 100 title.