Meteorologists will be keeping a close eye on this storm system as it takes shape in the Great Plains on Wednesday and marches toward New England just in time for Thanksgiving. It’s still early and the forecast could certainly change, but the timing looks like it could be messy for most of Thanksgiving and much of Friday morning.

The jet stream is now very active and has been pushed further south. When it buckles like this, it means that the air at the top level is moving at different speeds and often creates bubbles. Surface low-pressure systems consist of rising air that fills the void in the upper atmosphere, “plugging” into the jet stream and typically traveling through the land where the jet stream is located. And New England is an immediate target.

An important point to note with this storm: Tuesday’s fast-moving system will bring some colder air into the region ahead of Thursday’s storm, which will open the door to possible snow in New England. But the big question is: will it be cold enough to actually produce substantial snow?

The jury is still out, but there are two scenarios on the table: one, the Euro model, points to a higher impact system, where the core of the low tracking lies within the coastline with a steeper pressure gradient – ​​influenced by another system to the north – meaning more intense rain and snow.

In other models, such as the GFS or the American model, the approaching storm lingers south of New England, influenced more by an area of ​​high pressure offshore. This will cause the storm to fan out, become thin and allow more room for cold air to filter in – increasing the chance of snow, but with much lighter amounts of precipitation.

This storm could avoid turning into a full-scale snowstorm regardless of its exact track. That’s because a southerly to easterly airflow influenced by the storm and a separate offshore high should bring enough warm air into the region to ensure that most of southern New England and coastal Maine see only rain . And with the overall setup, there may not be enough cold air in the atmosphere needed to cover snow.

Scattered showers will fall across western New England mid-morning to late morning Thursday, increasing and spreading across the region throughout the day. The wet weather will continue throughout the evening and taper off Friday morning.

This will most likely be a near-exclusive rain event for most of southern New England. There may be a few periods of wet snow in the Berkshires and possibly the Worcester Hills, but that’s about it as far as snow potential goes in Mass., Rhode Island and Connecticut.

We’ll see what track this storm will take, which will obviously determine where the rain-snow line lines up, but the latest trend puts that line closer to the Massachusetts/Vermont/New Hampshire border. I expect a likely scenario of between 1 and 1½ inches of rain in southern New England with possible higher elevations in Central and Western Mass. I expect 1 to 3 inches of snow to fall if the timing and temperatures align.

Windy conditions will spread across most of southern New England, with gusts ranging from 30 to 40 miles per hour for some on Thanksgiving. With warm air blowing in from the ocean, this is another factor that will limit snow potential.

Northern New England, especially the ski resorts in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, will see a fair amount of snow on Thursday. About 2 to 4 inches of snow is forecast in central and northern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Higher elevations will be closer to double digits. However, depending on the possible scenarios, the amount of snow may change.

Rain will likely continue across southern and coastal areas of Northern New England, with some glimpses of a wintry mix overnight as temperatures drop.

Regardless of how this storm develops as it pushes into New England on Thursday, you’ll want to make sure you take extra time on the roads and don’t rush to your destination.

Temperatures will certainly drop and become increasingly colder from Thursday and the weekend. Colder air will move in behind the system on Thursday as it moves through New England. Highs likely won’t reach the mid-40s until southern New England.

On Black Friday, temperatures will likely barely rise above 40 degrees in some locations. The morning will be much colder as shoppers head out before dawn to score some early holiday bargains.

Behind the passing system Thursday, a deep pocket of high pressure will push south from Canada and deliver a shot of Arctic air over New England, sending high temperatures into the 30s by Sunday.

These coming storms, combined with the 1 to 7 inches of precipitation late last week, are expected to help alleviate severe drought conditions following an exceptionally dry fall — on Nov. 17, Boston broke a 110-year record for its driest fall. Months of high pressure dominated the region, leading to extremely dry conditions across New England and an unprecedented number of wildfires in Massachusetts.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.