It doesn’t seem like that long ago that I was young, but here we are with Gerry McNamara coaching a D1 basketball team. He is in his first season as Siena’s head man and takes over the reins of a team that finished 4-28 last year.

Actually he takes over the uniforms. There has been a lot of turnover in the squad, and he is already seeing the fruits of that as he has achieved 75% of last year’s win rate in just four games this year. Siena has played a great schedule this year, with an SoS 100 ranking higher than Xavier’s according to KenPom, and their OT win at Bryant is better than anything X has done on the road thus far. At 3-1 they are heading for the kind of start that teams at this level hope for with a brand new coach.

Xavier has done nothing but make cupcakes and roll Wake Forest so far this season. Siena is somehow the most tested team in this matchup, but it would still be impossible for the selection committee to overlook this if it goes sideways.

Team fingerprint

Their offense is not good, but they try to emphasize that by playing very slowly. They are not great shooters and rank 255th in the country with an EFG% of 46.9%. They are about mediocre from behind the arc, but extremely hesitant to draw. Offensive rebounding is a strength for them, which is good because they turn the ball over like they hate it in the first place. They also rank 349th in the country in support rate; they pass more on to the other team than to their own team. This all adds up to the 310th most efficient offense in the country.

The defense is better, but only because there is so much space above the crossbar of their attack. Forcing turnovers is the best thing they do, ranking them 65th in the country with a TO rate of 21.4%. They don’t give up many threes, but teams shoot 40% on the threes they can avoid. The defense glass is a black hole and they pollute a ton. They’re actually pretty solid at 2P% defense, but that’s undermined by how often they give up second chances and send opponents to the line. Their defensive efficiency of 107.5 puts them in 239th place.

Staff

Siena is essentially rebuilding from scratch this year. They rank 350th in the nation in D1 experience and 330th in minutes continuity. They’re basically a patchwork of transfers – including some familiar faces – and freshmen under a brand new head coach. Given the context, they could do a lot worse.

Appetizers

Reservations

The Saints get just over a quarter of their minutes off the bench and hover around 300th in the country depending on who else has played and who gets minutes off the pine. You expect a number of mistakes if you immediately put together a selection, and that is reflected in the form of a lack of depth.

That doesn’t mean there’s nothing here, as guard Justice Shoats comes off the bench and leads the team in scoring with a game line of 19.8/2.5/4.3. Shoats comes from D2 Lock Haven University, where he also excelled in track and field. Regardless, he was an absolute threat attacking the paint on offense, but he gets more out of getting to the line than actually scoring. He splits his shots between pull-ups and rim attacks, but he shoots just 37% from the rim. He has an excellent steal rate of 4.3% and a somewhat surprising – he’s 5’11” – 2.3% block rate.

And that’s it for the bank. Former Butler forward Myles Wilmoth averages 2.5/4.3/0.5 on terrible shooting numbers; only really good work on the offensive glass will keep him afloat. Big men Tajae Jones (1.5/3.8/0) and Michael Ojo (1.7/1/0.3) provide additional options in the paint and Gavin Doty (1.5/1.3/0) spends about 8 minutes per game on the wing. It’s not a great situation.

Three questions

-How’s Cam Fletcher? He arrived a little late and dominated the glass against Jackson State, but in a Wake Forest game that wasn’t threatened late, he entrenched himself on the bench. Maybe they’re bringing him along very slowly, maybe they’re just not quite ready to compete against a big team yet. Xavier should be home and dry and have time left in this game; Seeing a little bit of Fletcher would be something to keep in mind.

-What is Marcus Foster’s long-term role at Xavier? I mean, in the long run, like the rest of the year, and that’s all we have left of him. He scored a lot in high volume for Furman, but he has played a little-used glue role for Xavier. He doesn’t score or shoot much on X, but he defends and boards well and set a career high in assists against Jackson State. It takes a lot of discipline to play that role, especially if you were used to hucking every time you touched the ball at the previous stop. If he can remain effective as a glue guy, but maintain his edge when the moment calls for it, he’s a huge weapon for Xavier.

-Is Ryan Conwell the backup point guard? He has solid assist numbers and isn’t turning the ball over much so far this season. Siena has a defensive approach that can allow teams to get faster and force turnovers if they are not careful. Clearly, Dayvion McKnight is a great first option. Trey Green is a good bench guard, but he isn’t as steady in ball security as Conwell. This is something to keep an eye on in the future.

Three keys

-Take care of business. That’s all this game is about. Xavier is the better team and should look like it for much of the game. This will be a Q4 on Selection Sunday unless something ridiculously unforeseen happens. The bottom line is that this is just a tune-up game for the Muskies, and they have to make it look that way.

-Dominate the glass. This has not been the team’s strength so far. Specifically, they were pretty good on the defensive glass and pretty bad on the offensive end. Siena will give them a chance to get second chance points, and it would be nice to see someone other than John Hugley IV pop up regularly to catch misses. I don’t think this will be as big a part of Xavier’s offense as it was in the old Jalmesean O’Farrnolds days, but I would be encouraged to see some signs of life on that front.

-Keep the ball warm. A big part of Xavier’s offense is ball movement. Siena’s gambling style defense creates clean looks if the rotations are fast enough. For a team as talented and experienced on offense as Xavier is, this should be a real challenge.