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Yankees can turn rotation edge into a World Series-winning formula
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Yankees can turn rotation edge into a World Series-winning formula

LOS ANGELES – The last time the Yankees and Dodgers faced off in October, the World Series revolved around Fernando Valenzuela’s left arm.

He owned the 1981 from day one of the season and never let go. Valenzuela was an emergency starter on Opening Day and pitched a shutout. Thus began that year a streak of eight full games in a row, or as many as there were in the entire major leagues over two months this season. The success and signature style – looking skyward at the top of his delivery – while shooting screwballs that stunned hitters created ‘Fernandomania’. The phenomenon would forge lifelong Dodger fans, especially those in Los Angeles who shared his Mexican roots.

But no game better defined Valenzuela, none more remembered after the grief of learning of his death at age 63 Tuesday, than Game 3 of the ’81 World Series. The final start of his age-20 season, in which he would (still) win Rookie of the Year and Cy Young honors in unprecedented fashion, was his fifth in 17 days that postseason. That included, on three rest days, a must-win Game 3, as the Yankees had won the first two in The Bronx.

The Yankees hope Gerrit Cole can give them two good starts this World Series against the Dodgers. Jason Szenes/New York Post

Valenzuela gave up two in the third inning, two more in the fourth and then none. Los Angeles took the lead in the fifth. Valenzuela threw a complete game of 147 pitches. The Dodgers won and never lost again.

The Yankees flew west Wednesday — the 43rd anniversary of that dogged, defining performance in Valenzuela — to face the Dodgers in the World Series for the first time since 1981, in a completely different sport. There hasn’t been a complete game in the playoffs since Houston’s Justin Verlander in Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS against the Yankees, nor in the World Series since Kansas City’s Johnny Cueto in Game 2 in 2015 against the Mets.

Valenzuela would have been eliminated in the third or fourth inning with the same performance today. Only two of 76 starts this postseason exceeded 100 pitches, only one yielding an out in the eighth inning.

Still, much of the 120th World Series – the 12th between these historic teams – will depend on starting pitching. On paper, the Yankees have an advantage because you can write the names of four Yankee starters. Los Angeles had to throw two bullpen games in the NLCS and already manager Dave Roberts has revealed that at least Game 3 or 4 of the World Series will be all relievers.

One NL manager said, “I feel like the more innings the Yankees get from their starters and the more innings they force the Dodgers to use their bullpen, that’s their winning formula.”

In short, this feels offensively like a World Series between two versions of the Yankees from the late 1990s. Both grind at-bats, create a lot of base traffic and get into opposing bullpens. That became a less successful strategy in recent years, as instead of mid-inning weaklings, entire bullpens were filled with closer-type monsters.

The Yankees are hoping Carlos Rodon can give them length in his two expected World Series starts. Jason Szenes/New York Post

But even monster monsters have breaking points. Pens are overloaded and overexposed. Since 2019, batters have an .828 OPS in 476 at-bats when they see a reliever in the postseason for the third time. They have 21 home runs. The 20th was Juan Soto’s to Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis to decide the AL pennant. The 21st was Will Smith’s two-run blast off the Mets’ Phil Maton, all but eliminating the decisive NLCS Game 6 for the Dodgers.

And scouts who were with the Dodgers in the playoffs say the quality/sustainability of a game was questionable for the traditional starters, especially Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty in his last start against the Mets. Maybe a week off will help him come back to life.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s two-hit, no-run, seven-inning dominance produced the best Baseball-Reference game score ever for a Dodger in 22 regular season games against the Yankees. That was June 7. He made one more start before missing three months with a rotator cuff strain. In his seven starts since returning, including three in the playoffs, the righty hasn’t thrown more than 73 pitches or five innings.

Dodgers legendary pitcher Fernando Valenzuela died at the age of 63 on October 22, 2024. AP

This version of Walker Buehler is also just a five-inning pitcher, but the Dodgers have nowhere else to go with Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May on the IL.

The Mets can confirm that the Dodgers pen is very good. Still, the Yankees need to win a war of attrition by cutting starters early to make that bullpen play even more problematic. And they need to get innings from their starters to keep their good, deep pen from being spotted over and over again by a high-powered, long lineup.

That starts with Game 1 starter Gerrit Cole. Can he be a workhorse ace twice in this series? Can Carlos Rodon get 18 outs at least once, if not twice? Can Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt navigate the Dodgers’ lineup twice and deliver 15 outs?

No one needs to throw 147 pitches on three days of rest. The man who did that will be remembered during this World Series.

But Aaron Boone has a rotational advantage here if he can get more out of his starters and thus potentially ask less and better of his relievers.