After the first two games of the series went in the Yankees’ favor, the Guardians came back on Thursday night to level the ALCS at 2-1. Cleveland can tie the series at home on Friday night.

It won’t be easy. New York made Game 3 a tough task, with extra innings and late-game home runs being the deciding factor and pushing the Guardians over the top in front of their home crowd.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 PM EST at Progressive Field. The Yankees’ Luis Gil (15-7 / 3.50 ERA) and Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (3-10 / 4.86 ERA) are the projected starters.

Yankees vs. Guardians predictions and best bets

• Team to Score First and Win – Yankees: +130 for fanatics
• Yankes over 3.5 points scored: -140 on BetMGM
• First Earned Point Allowed – Gavin Williams: -125 on DraftKings

The late season is a different animal. However, in Williams’ only regular season start against the Yankees, he allowed three runs and eight baserunners over four-plus innings of work.

Combine that with New York scoring first in six of seven games this playoff run, and I think it makes the investment before Game 4 worth it to get positive odds.

While the Guardians aren’t afraid to turn to their bullpen, the constant use of relievers tends to dry up the well in the playoffs. This late in the year, this approach could have some consequences.

After a heartbreaking loss, the Yankees offense is put to the test to see how they can bounce back from defeat. With the depth of their lineup and their offensive success at this point in the series, I think it’s worth putting faith in them to surpass the 3.5 total runs mark.

Analysis of Yankees vs. Guardians moneyline odds

Why New York could win as the favorite

Best odds: -120 moneyline with FanDuel Sportsbook

Game 4 could prove to be the most important game of the series after an epic Game 3 showdown. If the Yankees were to lose consecutive games, the momentum would shift completely in the Guardians’ favor.

In postseason baseball, it can be easy to buy into the storylines. It would be impressive if the Guardians could come back from trailing 2-0 in the series, but New York is built to maintain the pace of play thanks to contributing pieces throughout the batting order.

Although the bullpen is strong for Cleveland, starting pitching has become a question for the team. The decision to name Williams as the Game 4 starter was never a certainty, as the team had a few options that were disappointing this deep into the postseason.

You can’t necessarily count on a unit starting to tire if Cleveland’s bullpen has been delivering efficient play all year. However, if the Yankees can strike early, it could result in the Guardians having to use more and more of their bullpen.

When fatigue starts to set in, these Yankees’ lineup will expose it.

Why Cleveland could win as an underdog

Best odds: +105 moneyline with BetMGM Sportsbook

If there are signs of a postseason collapse, the Yankees are starting to show them. I was stuck on the road in a crucial Game 4 that could swing the series momentum back to Cleveland before the final three-game stretch.

While there are questions surrounding the Guardians’ starting pitching, Gil has some red flags of his own. The pitcher was passed over to start in the ALDS for Clay Schmidt, and the reaction to that kind of move could go either way.

This is a tough situation for a rookie in his first postseason appearance after a 20-day rest. The Guardians should like their chances of cracking him.

With their backs against the wall down 2-0 in the series, Cleveland hit two home runs to not only come back from a 5-3 deficit, but also avoid a 3-0 series deficit.

The road to winning this series for the Guardians is a long one, but more often than not the team that catches fire is the one that wins it all. There was no better moment for a dugout than their Game 3 victory.

Carrying that into Game 4 in front of their own fans could be difficult for the Yankees to overcome.