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    • Trump tied with Harris in the NBC News poll
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    Trump tied with Harris in the NBC News poll

    Vaseline Posted on

    Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the latest national NBC News poll, with Trump backed by Republicans returning home to support him after last month’s raucous debate and a subsequent election deficit, as well as by a favorable assessment by voters of Trump’s term as president.

    These are among the findings of a new survey released three weeks before Election Day that also shows Harris’ popularity declining compared to a month ago after she got a big summer boost; a huge gender gap between support for Harris and Trump; and voters who view abortion as one of the top motivating issues ahead of the 2024 election.

    “As summer turns to fall, all signs of momentum for Kamala Harris are gone,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”

    McInturff said “headwinds” for Harris have helped narrow the presidential contest, including concerns that the vice president does not represent a change from President Joe Biden and that voters see Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than that of Biden.

    “She is asking for another term from the incumbent,” McInturff said of Harris.

    NBC News poll with photos of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
    NBC News

    What the poll underlines, however, is the uncertainty surrounding the election (with 10% of voters saying they might change their minds and a small share of unclaimed voters still undecided), an unprecedentedly high percentage of voters that believes this presidential election will make “a lot of difference” in their lives, and significant challenges for both Harris and Trump. The third-party vote could also play a role: Trump gets a small boost if third-party candidates are included in the voting test, up to a one-point lead.

    And in carefully balanced elections, even small changes in turnout between different groups can mean the difference between gain and loss for both parties.

    “The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she rise to the moment and fill in the blanks voters have about her?” asked Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.

    “The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he claim that the chaos and personal behavior that plagued so many during his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America?” he added.

    “Next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” Horwitt said.

    In the new poll – conducted from October 4 to 8 – Harris receives support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump receives an identical 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or would not vote for either option if forced to choose between these two major party candidates.

    (Read more from NBC News pollsters here on why this poll measures registered voters and not likely voters.)

    That’s a change from September’s NBC News poll, which showed Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%, although that result was within the margin of error.

    An expanded vote with third-party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll choosing Trump, 46% backing Harris and a combined 7% choosing other candidates or saying they are undecided.

    However, in September, Harris had a six-point lead on this expanded vote.

    Since close elections are often determined by which party can best pick its voters, the NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.

    Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans – which means slightly higher turnout among men, white voters and voters without a college degree – Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.

    But assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — meaning more women, more white voters with college degrees, and more voters of color showing up to the polls — these survey results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49 %-46%.

    All of these results fall within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

    (Read here for an in-depth look at these different turnout scenarios and how they would impact the election.)

    A huge gender gap

    At 48%-48%, the research results are as close as possible. But there are huge differences in support for candidates across different groups.

    The poll shows Harris has her biggest advantages over Trump among black voters (84%-11%), younger voters aged 18 to 34 (57%-37%) and white voters with a college degree (55%- 41%).

    Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and whites without a college degree (65%-33%).

    But what also stands out as one of the defining features of the election is a huge gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by a margin of 14 points (55%-41%) and men supporting Trump by 16 points (56% -40%).

    Independent voters are essentially split in the polls, with Harris receiving support from 44% of them, while 40% favor Trump. Compared to other groups, there are more independents who have yet to choose between Harris and Trump — or who say they don’t want to choose either.

    Harris’ popularity is declining

    Another significant change in the NBC News poll since September is Harris’ popularity.

    One of the key developments in the September NBC News poll, conducted after the Harris-Trump debate on September 10, was her double-digit popularity increase compared to earlier in the summer, before she became the Democrats’ presidential nominee. Her ratings skyrocketed to 48% positive and 45% negative (a +3 net rating).

    But in this latest poll, Harris’ rating stands at 43% positive and 49% negative (-6), with the erosion coming mainly from independent voters and young voters.

    That’s not far off from Trump’s positive rating of 43% and negative 51% (-8) in the same poll. That positive rating is Trump’s highest in the NBC News poll since he left office.

    The perception of Biden’s presidency lags behind that of Trump

    Another storyline from the poll is voters’ differing views of Biden’s presidency and Trump’s — an important question given the candidates’ attempts to cast themselves as agents of change in this election.

    Twenty-five percent of voters say Biden’s policies have helped them and their families, compared to 45% who think it has hurt them.

    These numbers are essentially based on views of Trump’s previous presidency: 44% of voters say the former president’s policies helped them, compared to 31% who say it hurt them.

    Additionally, looking back on Trump’s presidency, 48% of voters say they approved of the former president’s performance. That’s a higher job approval rating than Trump ever achieved in the NBC News poll when he was president.

    It also contrasts with Biden’s current 43% approval rating in the poll.

    And when asked what worries them more – Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president – ​​43% of voters say they are more concerned that Harris is taking the path of Biden follows, compared to 41% who are more concerned about Trump repeating the actions of his term.

    “The fact that Harris is even slightly behind on this measure is a warning sign, because voters are more likely to believe that Biden’s policies have hurt their families, while Trump’s policies have helped their families,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.

    Abortion is the most motivating issue – and the best issue for Harris

    While most public polls, including September’s national NBC News survey, rank cost of living as voters’ top concern, this survey asked a different question to understand voter intensity and motivation in the run-up to election day: is there one issue that you feel so strongly about? that you will vote for or against a candidate solely on that point?

    The top responses, with several allowed: abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protecting democracy or constitutional rights (18%), and cost of living (16%).

    The NBC News poll also tested Harris and Trump on nine different issues and presidential qualities, including who could better handle some of the top issues voters consider their top priorities.

    Harris’s best issue relative to Trump was abortion (19 points ahead of Trump in addressing the issue), health care (+10), and being competent and effective (+5).

    Trump’s main issues and qualities: dealing with the border (+25), dealing with the situation in the Middle East (+18) and dealing with the cost of living (+11).

    On the key question of which candidate best represents change, Harris is 5 points ahead of Trump, 45% to 40%, but that’s less than her 9-point lead here in September.

    Other key findings from the survey

    Sixty-two percent of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will make a “big difference” in their lives. That’s the highest response to this 1992 NBC News poll question.

    As in the presidential election, Democrats and Republicans are tied by congressional preference, with 47% of registered voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress, and an identical 47% wanting Republicans in charge. Democrats had a 2-point lead in September, 48%-46%, which was within the margin of error.

    And 31% of voters believe the country is going in the right direction, while 64% think it is going in the wrong direction. The share of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track is the lowest in the poll since August 2021, which was also the last time Biden received a positive job approval rating in the poll.

    The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were reached by cell phone, was conducted Oct. 4-8. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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