Snow lovers in New Jersey and many other eastern states may be disappointed when they see AccuWeather’s forecast for the 2024-2025 winter season.

AccuWeather predicts warmer than average temperatures and less snow than normal for the Garden State, as well as many major cities and metro regions in the eastern U.S., including New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Boston.

For snow lovers, winter forecasts are looking better for much of inland New England and other parts of the far northern U.S.

AccuWeather forecasters say warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Pacific, a weak La Niña weather pattern and a tight polar vortex are three major factors contributing to the weather outlook this winter.

“Water temperatures in the Gulf are expected to be warmer than historical averages, which could translate into mild air masses for the central and eastern U.S.,” AccuWeather said in its 2024-2025 winter forecast, released Monday morning.

In addition, AccuWeather said, “Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the North Pacific could alter the storm track off the West Coast at times during the winter, impacting the entire U.S.”

The La Niña weather pattern, which develops when ocean surface temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean remain cooler than average for extended periods, “can significantly affect weather patterns across North America, including the trajectory of snowstorms,” according to AccuWeather.

Because the La Niña pattern is expected to be weak through most of the winter season, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, it “could allow other signals to drive the pattern, creating more variability throughout the winter.” .”

Those other signals include the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the status of the polar vortex, Pastelok said in AccuWeather’s winter outlook.

Pastelok said the polar vortex is expected to remain strong and tight – with very cold air circulating around the North Pole and not sinking too far south for much of the winter. That factor could also play a big role in limiting the development of major snowstorms in the eastern U.S. this winter, AccuWeather says.