It’s a beautiful football Sunday here in Michigan. The morning coffee cuts through the cold air. It’s hoodie and hat weather, and I’m representing the Lions in each.

The Detroit Lions welcome the Titans from Tennessee on this beautiful fall day. Of course, playing in the dome at Ford Field negates the autumnal charm of the Great Lakes. On the other hand, Dan Campbell’s 5-1 Lions don’t want to make the Titans’ journey enjoyable, nor should they.

Why I think the Lions will win

Tennessee enters the game with a 1-5 record, thanks in large part to a thus far terrible offense plagued by turnovers and terrible quarterback play from Will Levis and (last week) Mason Rudolph. They rank last in passing yards per game, despite having an impressive (on paper) receiving corps with Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Hopkins (now gone) and TE Chig Okonkwo, plus the versatile RB Tony Pollard.

The quarterback play was poor, but so was the pass protection. Tennessee ranks 26th in sack percentage allowed and 27th in pass-blocking grades by PFF, with first-round rookie LT JC Latham struggling early. The new offense under rookie head coach Brian Callahan hasn’t clicked yet.

All that is to say, this isn’t an offense that can top the offense of Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions. Even without Jameson Williams, the Lions have more than enough firepower to win a shootout against Tennessee. And the Titans seem quite averse to even trying to get into a firefight with their offense.

Even with the Lions’ tremendous pass rush, this isn’t the type of offense or team mentality that can effectively exploit the vulnerability in Detroit. The Lions’ defense remains very good, although they remain somewhat sensitive to runners like Pollard, who can push back at full speed and read blocks well.

Back to that Lions offense. With Goff playing as well as any quarterback in the league, this should be a game where the Lions can score 30+ points. Tennessee’s defense isn’t bad at all, but they also haven’t seen a precise, creative, balanced unit like the Lions. Goff’s unerring willingness to take what the defense gives him and the diverse barrage of weapons at his disposal can quickly frustrate the Titans’ defense.

Which worries me about the Titans

Tennessee continues to have an impressive defensive line, even with former coach Terrell Williams now in Detroit. Jeffery Simmons is as good as it gets in terms of interior design. Huge rookie T’Vondre Zweet takes up a lot of space effectively and actively. Sweat is questionable for the game, but if he plays, the inside-out runs and delayed handoffs won’t work well for Detroit’s offense. Their linebackers are also playing well behind the duo, even without Ernest Jones. Any hesitation from the RBs won’t end well for Gibbs or Montgomery.

Despite trading Hopkins, the Titans receivers still have real talent. Ridley is playing better than his stats suggest, and Tyler Boyd is a tough matchup over the middle. Okonkwo and Pollard are both excellent receivers who can make the first tackler miss, so the Lions LBs and safeties will need to stay disciplined and alert.

I do worry about the pass rush, or lack thereof. Al-Quadin Muhammad is Detroit’s best EDGE in this game, but he comes from the practice squad and hasn’t played in a game since 2022. If coordinator Aaron Glenn tries too hard to plan the rush, it detracts from the coverage. but most importantly, the approach and control after the catch, and that’s where these Titans receivers can win.

Then there is the more abstract. It’s hard for a team to get such consistently bad play from players who appear to have real skills. That starts with Will Levis, who is effective in a Baker Mayfield-esque way until he makes really tough decisions and terrible throws at the least opportune moments. Their cornerbacks are solid, but don’t always play to their potential. Perhaps missing L’Jarius Sneed presents an opportunity for an as-of-yet unheralded defensive back to step up and make a name for himself. It’s too late for Tennessee to let something like that happen.

And of course the history factor. The Lions have never beaten the Titans. Most of the games were more about Detroit finding ways to lose than the Titans That much better (with the exception of 2008). History must be respected before its recurrence can be avoided.

Prediction of the final score

This is the “easiest” game left on the Lions schedule. Worry about a trap game if you want, but I believe Dan Campbell and his staff will avoid falling victim to overconfidence. It may not result in the lopsided outcome that my Titans Wire colleagues all predicted, but the Lions should win comfortably.

Lions 26, Titans 13