The new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, which showed Harris leading in Iowa by a margin of error, came as a big surprise — even to the pollster who conducted the poll.

“This was a shocking poll,” J. Ann Selzer, the president of the Des Moines-based polling firm that conducted the survey, said in an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

“I’ve been shocked since last Tuesday morning, so I’ve had time to let this sink in because no one, including myself, thought Iowa could go for Kamala Harris,” she said.

The poll, released Saturday, showed Harris with a 47% to 44% lead over Trump. While that lead was within the survey’s margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, it was a clear shift of seven points from September. Harris’ lead was fueled in part by a 28-point lead over Trump with independent female voters.

“If you’re a Democrat, you’re really looking at this and hoping it means something for states like Michigan and Wisconsin, which seem to be gridlocked battleground states,” Brianne Pfannenstiel, chief political reporter for the Des Moines Register, said on CNN. .

— Rebecca Picciotto and Dan Mangan

Top Trump campaign officials acknowledged the possibility that their nominee might not win as they briefed staff on how post-election operations will proceed.

An internal email signed by senior advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita and obtained by NBC News tells campaign staff that their last pay day is Nov. 30, “regardless of the outcome of the election.”

The message reflects standard procedure for any operation that will soon close its doors, but it is notable when anyone close to Trump nods to the possibility that he could lose.

If Trump wins, many of the employees will be transferred to the Trump-Vance transition team or to the president-elect’s inaugural committee, the email said.

Those who work at the campaign headquarters in West Palm Beach are advised to clear their work areas of personal belongings by November 10. The space will be converted to serve the transition and inauguration teams, “God willing,” Wiles and LaCivita wrote.

“As the campaign comes to a close in just a few days, please be proud of the work you have done and the contributions you have made to President Trump and Senator Vance (and their) work on behalf of freedom, security and the financial world health. our nation, and for peace around the world,” they write.

“Above all, be proud that you worked to Make America Great Again.”

— Kevin Breuninger and Jonathan Allen, NBC News

A Philadelphia judge could rule during a hearing that Elon Musk’s $1 million daily voter lottery should no longer be allowed to continue — but with only a day before Election Day, that might not matter much.

Philadelphia’s district attorney last week sued the billionaire Tesla CEO and his political action committee in the county’s Common Court of Pleas, accusing them of running an illegal lottery by offering cash prizes — 16 so far — to be awarded to registered voters in swing states who had signed a petition in support of the Constitution.

Musk then briefly had the case transferred to federal court, but District Attorney Larry Krasner almost as quickly got the case sent back to district court.

Musk has said his America PAC would run the giveaway until Election Day, so if Krasner gets the order he’s seeking from a judge during the hearing, it could save the Trump backer a million dollars or two.

– Then Mangan

Shares of Trump’s social media company fell as much as 8% in premarket trading, exacerbating Truth Social’s stock slide just before the election.

Trumpmediawho acts like DJT the Nasdaq saw its market capitalization drop by more than 40% between Tuesday afternoon and Friday last week.

The sudden drop wiped out much of the company’s gains during its huge rally in October, when its stock price more than tripled.

Despite its multi-billion dollar valuation, the company has posted a net loss of more than $340 million on revenue of less than $2 million this fiscal year.

The frenetic trading around stocks often seems to have little connection to company fundamentals. Analysts are more likely to see the company as a magnet for pro-Trump retail investors to back the former president and bet on his chances of defeating Harris in the election.

Harris will spend her final day on the campaign trail holding rallies in Pennsylvania, a must-win state that both Republican and Democratic strategists see as key to winning the Oval Office.

Harris will start the day in Scranton, Joe Biden’s hometown, before holding a rally in Allentown and then on to a local stop in Reading. On Monday evening, Harris will hold rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. According to the campaign, the latter two will feature musical guests, including Lady Gaga in Pittsburgh and Katy Perry in Philadelphia.

Pennsylvania chose Trump in the 2016 presidential election, but switched to Biden in 2020. Polls show Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the state.

–Jake Piazza

According to NBC News, approximately 76 million Americans have already voted early, through both mail-in and in-person voting.

Among states that register voters along party lines, 41% of early voters are registered Democrats and 39% are registered Republicans. Early voting rules vary from state to state.

–Jake Piazza

Trump will divide his time between three battleground states on the last day before the election.

Rallies are planned in Raleigh, North Carolina; Reading, Pennsylvania; Pittsburgh and Grand Rapids, Michigan, according to the Trump campaign.

Grand Rapids occupies a unique position in Trump’s campaign history: Michigan’s second-largest city was Trump’s final stop on election night during both of his previous presidential campaigns.

–Jake Piazza