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Hurricane Rafael will make landfall in Cuba as a major hurricane

Hurricane Rafael is now expected to track away from the southeastern Gulf Coast and is expected to grow into a major hurricane as it looks to make landfall in western Cuba later Wednesday.

Sustained winds are around 180 km/h, meaning Rafael is a Category 2 hurricane, just a hair shy of becoming a Category 3 (180-200 km/h).

Rafael is still expected to have some impact in the Florida Keys and the southwestern tip of the peninsula as it passes through Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Here’s what’s happening with Hurricane Rafael and its latest path.

Where is Hurricane Rafael?

Hurricane Rafael is still moving northwest at about 14 miles per hour. It will move just east of the Isle of Youth over the next few hours and make landfall as a major hurricane in western Cuba later today. From there, Hurricane Rafael will make its way into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to curve almost due west toward Mexico and the southeastern tip of Texas.

  • Tropical Storm Rafael location: 21.4N 81.9W
    • About 60 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth
    • About 130 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba
  • Maximum sustained wind: 180 km/h
  • Current movement: Northwest (320 degrees) at 22 km/h
  • Minimum central pressure: 994 MB, 29.36 inches

Will Hurricane Rafael impact Florida?

The Lower and Middle Florida Keys, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 bridge, and the Dry Tortugas are already under a tropical storm warning. These areas are expected to receive between 1 and 3 inches of rain.

Tropical storm force winds, mainly gusty, are expected to hit these areas later Wednesday and Wednesday nights. A few tornadoes are also possible Wednesday evening over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida Peninsula.

A new tropical disturbance is threatening the southwestern Atlantic Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a low pressure trough several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. It is expected to move westward over the next few days, while an area of ​​low pressure could form near the northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday night or Thursday.

Some gradual development is possible towards the end of the week as the course moves north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The chances of the system forming over the next seven days are slim.

What dangers you can expect from Hurricane Rafael

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected today in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the Lower and Middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible further east in central Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas in the western Caribbean, mainly from the Cayman Islands to western Cuba, until early Thursday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected in parts of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals of up to 12 inches in areas with higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. An additional rainfall of 5 to 10 centimeters is expected in the Cayman Islands.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

STORM SURFACE: A storm surge could raise water levels as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas with onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning Area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be inundated by rising water moving inland from the coastline. The water may reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

  • Dry Tortugas… 1-3 ft
  • Lower Florida Keys… 1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A number of tornadoes are possible tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern mainland Florida.

SURF: The Rafael-generated swell is expected to affect much of the western Caribbean in the coming days and will also spread east to west across most of the Gulf of Mexico late this week and into the weekend. These swells will likely create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Consult your local weather office’s products.

Hurricane Rafael Alerts, Watches and Warnings

Summary of the warnings and warnings in effect for Hurricane Rafael:

A hurricane warning is in effect for:

  • Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

  • Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila
  • Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
  • Dry Tortugas

When does the 2024 hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30.