When we see a hurricane in the Gulf, the entire Gulf Coast usually holds its breath. However, Rafael isn’t raising any nerves at the moment, as all signs indicate the storm won’t make landfall until next week and may not make landfall at all.

However, Rafael is still worth it. This is why:

If the storm passes west of the Yucatán Peninsula as a hurricane, it would be the only November hurricane to do so since 1851.

Hurricane Jeanne, in 1980, is the only November hurricane that somewhat resembles at least some of Rafael’s predictions. Jeanne arrived in the Gulf of Mexico and then rapidly intensified to Category 2 strength in the southern Gulf.

“Similar to what will happen to Rafael, Jeanne was sent west by high pressure north in the Gulf, but then lost her atmospheric steering wheel and slowed down,” Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman explains.

Once Jeanne traveled west of the Yucatán Peninsula, the storm had weakened to a tropical storm. Ultimately, a cold front and dry air spelled Jeanne’s final demise.

(For even more detailed weather tracking in your area, view your detailed 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

Why Raphael’s number is so rare

Of only six other previous hurricanes in the Gulf in November, five were in the eastern Gulf.

“We don’t normally have storms in the western Gulf in November because the jet stream tends to strengthen over the southern U.S. and most of the Gulf,” Erdman said. “That stronger jet usually pushes the November storms towards Florida, the Caribbean Sea, or tears them apart.”

Of the 287 hurricanes that made landfall on the U.S. mainland in NOAA’s database, only four did so in November. Most recently, Hurricane Nicole hit Florida in 2022 as a late-season Category 1 hurricane.

However, cold fronts typically don’t make it all the way through Florida in November, creating opportunities in the Sunshine State. That’s why, if a storm develops or moves into the Gulf of Mexico in November, Florida is the most likely landfall location.

What does Rafael send?

Rafael’s future issue is getting more interesting by the day. It is expected to weaken and slow down. Meanwhile, a new ridge of high pressure could form to the west or northwest, dragging it southwest early next week.

“If it survives the dry air, jogging southwest could move it to an area of ​​lower wind shear, meaning it could survive in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico well into next week,” Erdman explained. Adding, “A November storm this far southwest in the Gulf of Mexico would be unprecedented in the historical database dating back to the mid-1800s.”

Typical impact zones for November storms

In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has produced an average of one storm every 1 to 2 years and one hurricane every 2 to 3 years.

More often, parts of the Caribbean and Central America were hit hard by the November hurricanes.

If a storm develops in November, it usually occurs in the western Caribbean Sea or in the southwestern or central Atlantic Ocean. This is because environmental factors are more suitable for development. Wind shear is normally quite low, cold fronts usually haven’t moved that far south and water temperatures are still quite warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.

But just as we saw with Rafael, the hurricane season does not always go according to the rules: anything is possible.

J​ennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for Weather.com. Over the past two decades, she has covered some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories.