#1 – The statistical similarities

If you’re familiar with my approach, you may have noticed that I enjoy talking about tactics as much as I do statistics. In basketball, there are a number of team stat categories that I like to use to better understand the game I watched or to confirm an impression I have.

The first category is the four factors. These four factors were identified and defined by Dean Oliver as the numbers you need to pay attention to in order to understand basketball success. These figures are:

• To shoot (40%)
• Turnover (25%)
• Rebounding (20%)
• Free throws (15%)

(The number in brackets is the approximate weight Mr. Oliver assigned to each factor.)

Last night the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors were close, which is rare and explains why the game was so close and went to overtime.

Both teams scored with above-average efficiency (55.6% eFG%), were very good at not turning the ball over (less than 10% turnover rate), were aggressive on the boards (over 32% offensive rebound rate) and didn’t. going to the free throw line a lot (below 18 free throw percentages). So, did the Raptors and Celtics twins play the same game plan?

#2 – The statistical differences

Well, clearly not. This is why the four factors are more of a statistical category to measure success, but not the process itself. To better understand the game plan and process, shooting frequency is very useful. As a human, I can see trends, but I can’t count the number of shots in each area for both teams; that’s why I also use statistics here.

While the teams looked similar last night when we focused on the four factors, the shot frequency was as different as can be. The Celtics took just 14% of their attempts at the rim, compared to 35% for the Raptors. Off the line, we also see a huge gap, with the Raptors taking just nine threes over the break, while the Celtics took 37 attempts from there.

I wanted to highlight how statistics can sometimes tell both sides of a story and how important it is to always combine them with other statistics, context and watching the game itself.

#3 – The Jays take over in OT

With 51 points out of 126, the Celtics duo scored 40% of the Celtics’ points against the Raptors. However, in overtime, when the Celtics needed it, the Jays delivered. The coaching staff ran a few plays for them, like this Zoom play (off-ball screen and a handoff) for Jaylen Brown. Kornet’s second screen opens the shot for Jaylen, who loves these coupling moments.

After Jaylen delivered, Jayson took it upon himself to keep the Celtics over the Raptors. A strong drive with a left-handed finish… beautiful. There are concerns about his ability to finish at the rim. This year he is making 80% of his rim attempts.

The offensive animation wasn’t perfect late in the game and the Raptors showed a lot of energy despite playing back-to-back. The offensive creation was a bit shaky, but again, the Jays are here to make the tough shots when it matters most.

#4 – The last part wasn’t drawn like that

Last night, Jayson Tatum’s iconic shooting wasn’t supposed to happen… but it did. How do we know this shouldn’t have happened? First, because Jayson Tatum himself told Abby Chin after the game.

You can also see his face when Jaylen Brown falls. He looks at the clock on the other side of the field to assess how much time he has left and what he can do about it.

The original play was a Strong Motion play with spread screens off the ball for Jaylen Brown, but Davion Mitchell didn’t let that happen.

#5 – Jayson Tatum’s death continues to grow

Over the last five games, he has averaged eight assists, along with 29 points and nine rebounds, thanks to great efficiency. While his scoring doesn’t surprise me much, his passing seems to have taken another leap. Against the Nets a few days ago, this skip pass to Horford in the clutch left me speechless.

Last night he showed again how well he can pass. This season he was also able to develop a new skill: the no-look pass. This may sound like a gadget, but there is more to it. With these new passing skills, Jayson can manipulate the defense even more and be dangerous in a wider range of situations.

In addition, as every year, his ability to ride and kick (or ride and kick) has improved. He is getting better at controlling the timing and reading the position of the defense.

#6 – Jaylen Brown’s Free Throw Chase

Jaylen Brown’s ability to make mistakes has been a big talking point among Celtics analysts for a few seasons now. Why doesn’t he make more mistakes? What could he do to adapt and generate more trips to the line?

Well, last night Jaylen Brown, as he has done since the beginning of the season, chased fouls and got to the line. This season, his shooting error rate is a whopping 16%, the 93rd percentile for a wing. This is a big improvement from his usual 11%. His offensive season has been on and off and could be covered in another article, but this new weapon in his game is great news for the Celtics.

Another good news about the FT line is its efficiency. The sample size is still small, but it is well above last season’s efficiency of nearly 79% of free throws made.

#7 – Queta as a lob threat

The Celtics space issue has been much discussed now that Kristaps Porziņģ has been out for months. His three-point shot is often mentioned, but we often forget his lob threat, which creates vertical distance.

Sometimes we forget how valuable vertical distances are. If you’re wondering how crucial this could be, just think about the Celtics’ offense in 2021-2022, with Robert Williams’ vertical spacing in the starting lineup.

Last season the Celtics made 104 alley-oops; 32 of these were for KP. This season, the Celtics can use Queta as a lob threat, and last night’s game was a great illustration of that. So far this season, Queta has made 12 of the Celtics’ 20 alley-oops, with three coming last night. What I like about it is that they were joined by three different Celtics: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White.

While the Jayson Tatum alley-oop to Queta came off a classic pick-and-roll, Zoom Action’s other two started from different parts of the field. Jaylen started from the wing:

And Derrick White started from the top:

This highlights how well Queta knows how to rim and adjust based on the defensive coverage, ball position and timing of the action. A great addition to the rotation this year and a lot of fun to watch.

#8 – Bank impact in the 3rd

Speaking of the rotation, the bench kept the Celtics close to the Raptors in the third quarter. Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet and Jordan Walsh scored 19 of the Celtics’ 30 points and made the run to make sure the Raptors weren’t going anywhere. In addition to Jayson Tatum’s playmaking and his four assists in twelve minutes, the players on the bench showed how good they are at finishing.

The second unit is a great fit for JT, who can make the offense shine without taking shots. He was able to generate the advantage, draw defensive attention and ensure that PP, Sam and the rest of the squad had the open shots they needed to keep the Celtics in the game.

#9 – Toronto’s off-ball move made the Celtics defense look bad

You might be wondering: If all of these insights were positive, how come the Celtics almost lost to one of the worst teams in the NBA? First, because even the worst team in the NBA is dangerous. The Raptors are well-coached, smart and strong, and they knew how to attack the Celtics.

Since the start of the season, the Celtics have been playing poorly defensively compared to their standards. The transition defense has been messy and the rim protection is nowhere to be found when KP is out. But how did a team without a big offensive initiator punish the Celtics so often at the rim? Well, speed and movement off the ball.

In the example above, the Raptors run a zoom play, which draws 100% of the attention of the Celtics defense. As this is happening, RJ Barrett cuts behind Jayson Tatum, and they have an open shot at the rim.

Another example of this was a great play call from Darko Rajaković, which made the Celtics pay for their poor off-ball defensive rotation. They perform a Ghost Flare move where Gradey Dick sets up a fake ball screen and uses Pöltl’s flare screen to get rid of Sam Hauser. Jaylen Brown stays on Pöltl, Queta is far too far to help and it leads to another open shot on the edge.

If the Celtics had a little trouble winning last night, it was because of their off-ball defense. Nevertheless, the on-ball defense and pick-and-roll defensive coverage weren’t perfect either.

#10 – Pick-and-roll defensive coverage

Last night the Celtics couldn’t contain RJ Barrett’s pick-and-roll play, but would they have even tried? I remain impressed that they didn’t and were happy with the shots the Raptors took; they just didn’t expect to make it at such a rapid pace.

The Celtics’ defensive coverage was a soft drop, or soft constraint, if you prefer. The defender on the ball went under the screen as RJ Barrett couldn’t pull up, allowing them to control the drive. However, the screener defender also helped contain the drive.

This drew a lot of defensive attention to the ball and RJ Barrett, which opened the floor for Pöltl. The Austrian was unstoppable last night from the short middle, but the Celtics decided to live with it. They switched it up to slightly more aggressive coverage later in the game, but the short-mid range was still open.

You could say it was risky, but the short midrange isn’t an efficient area of ​​the floor, and they trusted their process that Pöltl wouldn’t make enough of them to lose. It almost worked for the Raptors, but the basketball gods were on the Celtics’ side last night.