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2024 College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 6
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2024 College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 6

Week 6 produced the wildest weekend of the season yet, with four teams in the top 11 taking it on the chin, highlighted by No. 1 Alabama losing to unranked Vanderbilt.

Two other SEC teams suffered their first loss, with Tennessee falling at unranked Arkansas and Missouri getting drubbed at No. 25 Texas A&M. And two highly regarded Big Ten teams — Michigan and USC — each suffered their second loss of the season, losing to unranked Washington and Minnesota, respectively.

It marked the first time that five teams in the AP top 11 lost on the same day since Nov. 12, 2016, and the first time ever that two top-5 SEC teams lost to unranked teams in the same day. In all, seven teams suffered their first loss of the season. And then there’s Miami, which needed a dramatic, late-night comeback over Cal to keep the zero in its loss column.

What does all that mean for the College Football Playoff and the overall bowl picture?

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

We’re here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day on Dec. 8.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 — ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 Notre Dame at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Boise State at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Georgia

Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Alabama

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: With as many noteworthy upsets as occurred Saturday, it’s impossible to put together a playoff field that anyone can feel truly confident about. Alabama’s bewildering loss to Vanderbilt, for example, came just a week after the Tide beat Georgia. Who should be ranked ahead of the other? Clemson looks like a different team than the one that got punked by Georgia in August. And Boise State looks like a Group of 5 machine that is ready to steamroll the rest of its schedule, with its only blemish a narrow loss at still-undefeated Oregon. The SEC usually gets the benefit of the doubt, but two of its three unbeaten teams in conference play have nonconference losses: LSU (USC) and Texas A&M (Notre Dame). And round and round we go.

play

1:01

Finebaum blames Nick Saban for Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt

Paul Finebaum says former Alabama coach Nick Saban motivated Vanderbilt to upset the Tide.

Schlabach: Where do we begin after one of the wildest days in our glorious sport’s history? Alabama fell at unranked Vanderbilt 40-35 a week after beating Georgia at home. Unranked Arkansas knocked off Tennessee in a 19-14 stunner, and unranked Washington took down defending national champion Michigan 27-17, handing the Wolverines their second defeat of the season. Another team outside the top 25, Minnesota, stunned USC 24-17, dropping the Trojans to 3-2. Texas moves back into my No. 1 spot, followed by Ohio State, Miami and Iowa State. The Crimson Tide dropped to No. 8 in my rankings, Tennessee is No. 10. I have Notre Dame at No. 11, even though the Fighting Irish’s earlier loss to Northern Illinois is looking worse each week. I also considered Pittsburgh, BYU, Kansas State and Indiana for the final at-large spot. Yes, you read that correctly.


CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinals at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 BYU
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Iowa State

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinals at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Texas

CFP quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinals at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Miami

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: For Texas and Ohio State, the idea of entering the playoffs with games against Alabama and Georgia is daunting, but that would be a strong possibility if the season were over today. The odds of that sticking through the next two months are low, of course, but it does showcase the type of intriguing quarterfinal matchups that the 12-team playoff could provide.

Schlabach: Once again, I have multiple teams from the Big Ten and SEC in the quarterfinals. Teams in those leagues are going to continue to knock each other off, which is going to make November especially enticing in the CFP race. Texas is the lone unbeaten team remaining in the SEC; Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State are still undefeated in the Big Ten. Penn State-Ohio State would be a traditionalist’s dream in the Rose Bowl. I have Georgia and Miami playing in the Sugar Bowl because I don’t think the CFP selection committee would put No. 3 Miami at a disadvantage in playing the Bulldogs in Atlanta.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinals at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP semifinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Texas

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: After Miami was on the receiving end of two controversial late-game officiating decisions in as many weeks, it’s hard to look at its 6-0 record and see the Hurricanes as a true contender. So, for this week, it’s six-seed Penn State progressing through Miami and five-seed Oregon going through BYU to reach the semifinals against Texas and Ohio State. We’ll learn a whole lot more about Oregon and Ohio State this week with the Buckeyes traveling to play the Ducks in Eugene. The winner of that game could have a claim to the No. 1 ranking come this time next week.

Schlabach: I’m going with chalk with Texas defeating Oregon in the Cotton Bowl and Ohio State knocking off Georgia in the Orange Bowl. The Bulldogs still seem flawed on offense and they’re missing too many tackles on defense. But they could turn things around over the next two months. The Buckeyes look like the most complete team in the FBS right now, but as Kyle suggested, we’ll see if that’s still the case after Saturday. The Longhorns also figure to be tested in their Red River Rivalry showdown with Oklahoma.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. NC Central

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Virginia vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Louisiana Monroe

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Oregon State vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UConn vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Tulane

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: California vs. UNLV
Schlabach: California vs. UNLV

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Marshall vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Coastal Carolina

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Boston College vs. South Carolina

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Charlotte

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Dec. 26

Detroit Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Wisconsin

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Arizona

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Buffalo vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Vanderbilt vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. NC State

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: James Madison vs. Navy
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UCF vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: BYU vs. Kentucky

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: SMU vs. Washington State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Colorado

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Colorado
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Washington State

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Memphis vs. Syracuse
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Virginia Tech

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Illinois

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: San José State vs. Washington
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Utah

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Ohio vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. San José State

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Army
Schlabach: Duke vs. Navy

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. USC
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Washington

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. Utah
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Oregon State

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Missouri

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Ole Miss

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Boston College vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. USC

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Texas A&M

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ESPN

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Louisville vs. LSU

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: UCF vs. Minnesota

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Duke vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Rutgers

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Liberty vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Eastern Michigan