In 2016, the Vandals held off an MSU rally and won 20-17 at the Kibbie Dome in Moscow, Idaho. The Bobcats won the next two, both in Bozeman, 24-23 in 2018 and 20-13 in 2021. In a top-10 matchup last October, Idaho won a 24-21 thriller over MSU in Moscow.

The Cats and Vandals will meet again Saturday at Bobcat Stadium, and many signs point to another close final score. MSU (6-0, 2-0 Big Sky), the No. 3-ranked team in the FCS, is a 9 ½-point favorite to beat No. 7 Idaho (4-2, 1-1).

“One of the great venues, one of the best true home field advantages in college football, so it’s going to be a great challenge for us,” Idaho head coach Jason Eck said Monday.

With a win, the Cats would improve to 7-0 for the first time since 1978.

The game will kick off at 8:15 p.m. and be televised on ESPN2.

“Having our fans behind us will be a really big deal,” MSU quarterback Tommy Mellott said Monday. “We just can’t wait for them to come up here and for the opportunity to see where we are.”

Here are five things to watch Saturday night:

There might not be a better Big Sky matchup between offensive and defensive lines all season than Saturday’s game.

MSU is top three in the FCS in both rushing yards per game (298.7) and yards per carry (6.49), and its six sacks allowed is tied for 20th-fewest in the subdivision. The Cats have done it against a strength of schedule ranked 254th among 263 Division I teams, according to the Sagarin Ratings, but their offensive numbers might look better if they didn’t play their backups so often and if All-Big Sky center Justus Perkins wasn’t hurt.

Entering Saturday, the Vandals have the second-toughest FCS strength of schedule, per the Massey Ratings. If anything, Idaho’s D-line has performed better when the competition has been toughest, tallying seven total sacks against Oregon (then ranked No. 3 in the FBS) and Wyoming and holding both FBS programs to a combined 3.14 yards per carry.

Overall, the Vandals rank top 10 in the FCS with 93.3 rushing yards allowed and 2.79 yards per carry against. They held MSU to 128 yards on 5.6 yards per carry last season.

Idaho defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby, a Helena High graduate and Montana Tech transfer, is tops among FCS players with eight sacks. If opposing teams decide to block James-Newby with multiple players, Idaho can make them pay with defensive tackle Dallas Afalava (2 ½ sacks, two QB hurries), DE Malakai Williams (2 ½ sacks, one QBH), DE Xavier Slayton (two sacks, one QBH) and DT Zach Krotzer (one sack, three QBHs).

The Vandals are tied for third in the FCS with 18 team sacks even though they’re “not a real heavy blitz team,” said Eck, who was MSU’s O-line coach in 2015.

“We’ve got to have some things to get to if teams are chipping,” Eck added. “I think (MSU will) do some element of that in particular on obvious passing downs, but I think there will also be times where they trust their O-line.”

Idaho’s defensive scheme under first-year defensive coordinator Dan Jackson doesn’t look much different than last season’s under Rob Aurich (now at San Diego State) in the eyes of MSU head coach Brent Vigen.

“They have definitely become more creative with that front, moving guys around,” Vigen said Monday. “How they might show up and play us on Saturday could have a bunch of different wrinkles too. I do think that. I think we’ve become this different opponent than most teams, and every Saturday, I think we come to the ballpark and we get a little bit different defense than we see on film.”

The last time MSU hosted Idaho, Mellott was a true freshman backup who appeared almost exclusively as a Wildcat QB. The Butte native rushed 13 times for 68 yards and three touchdowns in a 20-13 win over the Vandals on Nov. 13, 2021.

Heavy rushing totals became commonplace for Mellott after he became the starter two games later, most notably in the 2021 FCS semifinals, when he ran 34 times in MSU’s 31-17 win over South Dakota State (Eck was SDSU’s offensive coordinator at the time).

Mellott has 34 total rushing attempts so far this season.

“That’s six times a game that he’s using his feet,” Eck said. “In a big game, that could definitely be a few more.”

Mellott’s low rushing total has been by design, Vigen has said, mostly because his coaches want to keep him healthy and because they didn’t need his elite speed to beat their last five unranked FCS foes. Opposing defenses have increasingly stacked the box against MSU, resulting in a yards-per-carry reduction in each of its last three games.

Mellott has completed 68.7% of his passes for 1,082 yards, 12 TDs and no interceptions so far this season. He went 6 of 9 on MSU’s game-winning drive in the final two minutes of the season opener at FBS New Mexico.

“He’s been really put in one big moment far, as far as a fourth quarter goes, and I think he definitely passed the test down in Albuquerque,” Vigen said, adding, “I’m very thankful we have Tommy, and I expect him to shine in those moments.”

Continuing to lean on Mellott’s arm might be unwise Saturday, considering his game-changing rushing ability and the lethality of Idaho’s pass rush.

“There’s going to be points in time when he needs to run,” Vigen said.

It’s hard to know if Mellott will get significantly more carries against Idaho, based on what the Cats have said and done. Even last year when he ran more often, he attempted 24 passes and six rushes at Idaho. The early lead Idaho built contributed to that discrepancy, but it still makes Mellott tough to gameplan for, especially since he’s been a more frequent and effective passer this fall.

“I’m looking forward to Tommy Mellott graduating,” Eck said with a smile.

Idaho starting QB Jack Layne will probably miss his sixth straight game, per Eck, because of a broken collarbone. The two QBs who’ve played in Layne’s stead, Jack Wagner and Nick Josifek, are active but have both been nicked up in recent weeks. Starting cornerback and kick returner Abraham Williams will “be out for a while” with a broken arm, Eck said.

In addition to Perkins, MSU will be without all-conference running back Julius Davis for the seventh straight week due to injury, although Cole Sain has played well at center, and MSU has one of FCS’s best RB tandems in Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones.

MSU co-starting nose tackle Blake Schmidt suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. As a result, Paul Brott is now the first-string nose by himself, and Hunter Sharbono is listed as the backup. Sharbono is a redshirt freshman from Fairview.

“He’s got the ability, he’s got the size. He’s a naturally strong guy, but he’s put on some good strength since he’s been here. Works hard, is very diligent,” Vigen said of Sharbono. “We’ve got a bunch of those second-year guys that are in the mix, and Hunter now added to that group where, alright, let’s ideally see them continue to blossom as we go through the next month and a half.

“We need it out of Hunter, and there’s no reason that it can’t happen.”

Vigen said starting free safety Caden Dowler is doubtful for Saturday’s game after suffering an injury last week against Northern Colorado, but there might not be a drop-off at that position. Last year’s starting FS, Dru Polidore, is back from a spring injury that forced him to miss the first six games of this season.

“I think he’s in a good place with working through his movement the last three weeks,” Vigen said. “Dru plays with the level of confidence that you need, albeit now he’s been out for a while, so I think it’s going to be a little bit of a work in progress.

“But I think the fact that he’s been out there with those guys on that field, he’s played that position, I think we feel good about the way the cohesion part looks, and he’s a pretty diligent guy as far as knowing his assignment and having good eyes.”

Last October in Moscow, the Vandals won the time of possession battle over MSU 41:27 to 18:33. That stat, and the outcome, might’ve looked completely different if MSU didn’t go three and out on its first three drives.

“Certainly some credit goes to Idaho. Some of that was just our inability to execute initially,” Vigen said. “So the ability to move the ball, both on the ground and through the air, on first down will be really important (Saturday). And then how do we follow it up on second down? Limit those third down opportunities. Certainly limit the third-and-longs. That’s when they’ve been really dangerous defensively and been able to get after almost every team with pressure.”

MSU ended up with a better third down success rate than Idaho in last year’s game, but the Vandals had more overall conversions (6 of 15 on third down versus 5 of 10 for MSU). More than half of their 22 first downs came on the first two plays of the series, and they were 3 of 4 on fourth down.

“We’ve got to be able to slow them down on first and second down and get these younger quarterbacks in passing situations,” Vigen said. “When their passing game plays off of their run game play action wise, they are dangerous, really dangerous down the field.”

In last year’s game, Idaho’s Ricardo Chavez made a 53-yard field goal, while MSU’s Brendan Hall missed his 48- and 43-yard tries. Only one kickoff in the game didn’t result in a touchback, and MSU’s Marqui Johnson returned it just 20 yards. Idaho’s Jermaine Jackson tallied the lone punt return, a 6-yarder.

Both Jackson and Chavez, who was an All-Big Sky kicker and punter, exhausted their eligibility. Cameron Pope has made 6 of 8 field goals for the Vandals so far this season, with a long of 49 and a perfect 6-of-6 mark on tries less than 50 yards. LJ Harm has averaged 40.9 yards per punt with 10 downed inside the 20-yard line and nine fair catches. Andrew Marshall is averaging 12 yards per punt return with a TD, while Idaho’s longest kick return has gone 29 yards.

Even if Abraham Williams (an All-American returner at Weber State) was healthy, he likely wouldn’t get any kick return chances Saturday. Hall has booted 42 of 43 kickoffs for touchbacks this season.

Hall has remained one of the FCS’s best punters, but he lost field goal duties after last season’s Idaho game. Myles Sansted is 5 of 7 on field goals this season and has missed one PAT.

MSU’s longest kick return in 2024 has gone 26 yards, and Johnson (whose longest is 20) has missed the previous two games with an injury. Whoever returns kickoffs for MSU Saturday has a good chance of success. Idaho’s Owen Adams has 17 touchbacks on 30 kickoffs, and the Vandals have allowed the third-most yards per kick return (29.58) in the FCS even with no TDs surrendered.

Opponents have combined for minus-5 punt return yards on 13 attempts against the Vandals, the second-stingiest mark in the FCS. MSU’s Taco Dowler leads all FCS players in punt returns (27) and punt return yardage (394), and his 14.6-yards per punt return average is eighth-best.