We’re almost through Week 12 of the 2024 NFL regular season and while the postseason is still over a month away, we’re getting an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.

Which teams are already in good form? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately end up in the field of 14 teams? We used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to project the remainder of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We’ve added updated odds for each team to make the postseason, reach the division, and even make it to the Super Bowl. Here’s everything you need now.

Latest update: November 25 at 11am ET

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AFC | NFC

Projection of the AFC playoff field

The AFC is becoming increasingly clear. The Bills, Chiefs and Ravens are all on the cusp of making the playoffs, while the Chargers, Steelers and Texans are also above 90%. The Broncos (63%) are currently the only other team in the conference above 25%.

Division races in the AFC may not be super exciting either. The FPI believes the AFC West, AFC East and AFC South are all but decided. However, keep an eye on AFC North, where the Steelers lead at 54% and take the division title.

One more note: the Bills could actually clinch the AFC East this week with a win (vs. 49ers) and a Dolphins loss (at Packers). According to ESPN Research, there have been six instances since 1980 where a team reached a division with five or more games remaining in the season. Of the previous six, four reached the Super Bowl, but only one of them won (1985 Bears).

The Raiders, Patriots, Jaguars, Jets and Browns are at the bottom of the conference in playoff chances.

NFC Playoff Field Projection

The Lions, Eagles, Vikings and Packers are the only NFC teams above 90% making the playoffs right now, so this conference is a little wider open. The Commanders (71%), Falcons (70%) and Cardinals (53%) follow, but no other team reaches 50%.

The tightest divisional race in the NFL is the NFC West. Arizona leads with 49%, but the other three teams range from 12% to 25% to win the division.

The Giants, Panthers, Bears, Cowboys and Saints are all less than 5% to make the playoffs.

Check out our NFL Playoff Machine

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NFL Playoff Schedule

January 11-13, 2025: Wildcard round
January 18-19: Divisional round
January 26: AFC and NFC championship games
February 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)