The Week 13 schedule for the 2024 NFL season kicks off with a great slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know for the holiday’s three matchups.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analysis writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction before each contest. The ESPN Research team provides big stats to know and a betting nugget for every match, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes into the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds the X-factors of fantasy football, and three analysts – Moody, Walder and Kalyn Kahler – give us a final score for each game. Plus, we’ll take a look at the best moments in each team’s Thanksgiving history.

Let’s start with the Bears and Lions, who meet for the 20th time on Turkey Day.

Go to a matchup:
CHI-DET | NYG-DAL | MIA-GB

12:30 PM ET | CBS | ESPN Betting: DET -10 (48.5 O/H)

Bear storyline to watch: Wide receiver DJ Moore went from averaging 9.8 air yards per target in Weeks 1-10 to 1.9 after the Bears named Thomas Brown their offensive coordinator in Week 11. Moore caught all seven of his targets behind the scrimmage against the Packers and Vikings ran for 96 yards and a touchdown. He has generated 120 yards after the catch, which is a career high over the last two weeks. Detroit’s defense has allowed 4.3 yards per target on passes behind the line of scrimmage, which is the fourth-lowest average in the league, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. –Courtney Cronin

Lions storyline to watch: Can the Lions get their first Thanksgiving win since 2016 in a short week? Although they are off to their best start in 90 years, Detroit will look to limit distractions during the annual holiday game as coach Dan Campbell’s message this week was to rest, recover and focus on the task at hand. The Lions have scored more than 40 points in three straight home games and will look to continue that pace. “We haven’t won Thanksgiving in a while, and that’s something we want to change,” quarterback Jared Goff said after Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. –Eric Woodyard

Statistic to know: The Lions will be the seventh team in the past 40 seasons to play on Thanksgiving as the NFL’s top-scoring offense. Each of the previous six teams went on to win their matches.

Bold prediction: Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson will intercept Goff. Johnson is having another great season, with a coverage pass rush of 0.9 yards allowed, well below the average of 1.2 for outside corners (per Next Gen Stats). –Walder

Injuries: Bears | Lions

Fantasy X Factor: Lions run back to Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit’s offensive line ranks 12th in run blocks won, and the team ranks third in rushing attempts per game. With David Montgomery dealing with a shoulder injury in a short week, expect the Lions to lean on Gibbs even more. The Bears’ defensive front ranks 26th in run-stop winning percentage, so Detroit’s ground game could have a big day. See the week 13 rankings. — Moody

Bet: The Bears are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their past five games, and four of their past five games have gone under the total. Read more.

Kahler’s choice: Lions 28, Bears 21
Moody’s choice: Lions 30, Bears 17
Walder’s choice: Lions 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: DET, 76.2% (with an average of 11.0 points)

Thanksgiving Review: This is the second most common game on Thanksgiving Day, behind the 22 meetings of the Packers and Lions. Chicago leads the Thanksgiving series 11-8, including three straight wins in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Detroit last won in 2014, when Calvin Johnson recorded 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Caleb Williams improves under OC Thomas Brown … Cairo Santos accepts blame for ‘stink’ with blocks … How the Lions went from perennial underdog to sportsbooks’ worst enemy

4:30 PM ET | FOX | ESPN Betting: DAL -4 (37.5 O/U)

Giants storyline to watch: The Giants come in reeling and on the brink of implosion. They’ve dropped six in a row, and players called their effort “soft” in Sunday’s 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers after the bye week. New York was outscored 148-74 during that span and relied on Tommy DeVito, previously the third-string quarterback, last week. DeVito was sacked four times and will not play again on Thursday due to a forearm injury. That puts Drew Lock in line for his first start with the Giants. –Jordan Raanan

Cowboys storyline to watch: Can they put on a winning streak? Can they actually win a match at home? The Cowboys last won back-to-back games in Weeks 4 and 5 and have yet to win a game at AT&T Stadium this season. They have trailed by more than 20 points in each of their past six home games, including the playoffs, which is an NFL record. But this is the Giants, coming off an embarrassing Week 12 performance. And the Cowboys have won seven straight games against them at AT&T Stadium. — Todd Sagittarius

Statistic to know: Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II had nine sacks through Week 7, the most in the NFL. He hasn’t had any sacks since, but if he were to add another, he would become the third Giants player with double-digit sacks in twelve games over the last fifteen seasons.

Bold prediction: Malik Nabers will record over 90 receiving yards. He still has an open rating of 99 via ESPN’s Receiver Ratings, the highest possible, meaning he’s doing his job getting open — regardless of whether his quarterback can get him the ball or not. I think Lock starting is a good thing (versus DeVito) for Nabers, especially after he complained last week about not getting a goal in the first half. –Walder

Injuries: Giants | Cowboys

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Fantasy X Factor: Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. In regular season games without quarterback Dak Prescott, Lamb averaged 12.0 goals and 16.8 fantasy points per game. With Rush under center, he should get a lot of looks, especially since the Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their passes. See the week 13 rankings. — Moody

Bet: Unders are 5-0 when the Giants play teams with losing records this season. Read more.

Kahler’s choice: Cowboys 17, Giants 12
Moody’s choice: Cowboys 26, Giants 19
Walder’s choice: Cowboys 19, Giants 16
FPI prediction: DAL, 52.6% (average 1.2 points)

Thanksgiving Review: In 1993, Cowboys defensive tackle Leon Lett attempted to recover a blocked game-winning field goal attempt. The ball was advanced by Lett and recovered by the Dolphins on the 2-yard line. Miami connected on the next field goal attempt and won 16-14. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Eli Manning is destined for the Hall of Fame, but when? … Is the Cowboys’ wild win a stepping stone to a late playoff push? … Inside, the wild Cowboys beat the Commanders

8:20 PM ET | NBC/Universo/Pauw | ESPN Betting: GB -3.5 (46.5 O/U)

Dolphins storyline to watch: The Dolphins are winless in temperatures below 40 degrees under coach Mike McDaniel — and temperatures in Green Bay are expected to dip below freezing. McDaniel said his team is well aware of the narrative about the inability to play in cold weather. But Miami brings one of the most efficient offenses of the past month into this game. No NFL team has scored on a higher percentage of its drives since Week 8 than the Dolphins (56.3%). — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Packers storyline to watch: The Packers may have finally solved their red zone problems. They scored touchdowns on all five of their red zone drives (including three scoring runs from Josh Jacobs) in Sunday’s win over the 49ers, after ranking 27th in touchdown percentage in the 20 for the game. Since the Dolphins rank seventh in red zone defense, this Thanksgiving game could reveal whether that is real or a fluke. — Rob Demovsky

Statistic to know: The Packers forced three or more takeaways against the 49ers for the sixth time this season, which is the most in the NFL. They scored 22 fewer points than turnovers, which is the most in a game since Week 17 of 2022.

Bold prediction: Dolphins and Chop Robinson will record two or more sacks. The rookie pass rusher has really been on the rise lately. In Week 12, he led edge rushers in pass rush winning percentage for the second straight week (42.1%). –Walder

Injuries: Dolphins | Packers

Fantasy X Factor: Dolphins run back to De’Von Achane. He is crucial in this must-win game for Miami as it looks to get him back into the AFC playoff race. Why not lean on one of the most dangerous playmakers? Achane has scored more than 20 fantasy points in four of his past five games. The Packers defense has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to running backs this season, making his dual-threat skills particularly valuable. See the week 13 rankings. — Moody

Bet: The Packers are 8-3 outright and ATS in games when it is 32 degrees or below under coach Matt LaFleur, including the playoffs. Read more.

Kahler’s choice: Packers 28, Dolphins 27
Moody’s choice: Packers 34, Dolphins 28
Walder’s choice: Packers 24, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: GB, 66.3% (with an average of 6.5 points)

Thanksgiving Review: This is only the third time the Packers have played at home on Thanksgiving. The other matchups were a 1923 win over the Hammond Pros and a 17-13 loss to the Bears in 2015. Against Chicago, Green Bay was in fourth place with 22 seconds left. Read more.

Matchup must-reads: Tyreek Hill’s traffic citations dismissed after officers fail to show up… McDaniel references ‘tantrum’ to avoid Calais Campbell trade… Jacobs, rushing play gives Packers something to rely on