Jason McIntyre

Co-host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Another NFL week is upon us, which means we have another chance to win some money on our bets.

When I looked at the Week 10 slate, there were three matchups that caught my attention. And in these matches I couldn’t resist giving the favorites an edge.

One team in particular that I couldn’t pass up was Detroit.

But keep reading because I make a pretty strong case for why I’m backing the Commanders and Niners to win and cover.

(All times ET)

Sunday November 10th

STEELERS @ COMMANDERS (1 p.m., CBS)

The Steelers will be a rare public underdog on the road. Everything is on the cards here for the Steelers.

Can I interest you in certain trends?

Mike Tomlin vs. starting quarterbacks is 25-6! He’s a smart defensive coach. Mike Tomlin from a bye is 13-4. Give him an extra week to plan his game? Say goodnight. Mike Tomlin as underdog since Ben Roethlisberger retired? 20-9 against the spread (ATS).

You get the point.

You know what those numbers don’t take into account? Washington’s 2024 season.

The Commanders are the league’s best story, an attacking machine that has played 36 quarters and scored astonishingly in 34 of them. They are 11-for-11 on fourth down!

It will be the best offense the Steelers have seen since the opener, when they faced the skinny Kirk Cousins. And how do you beat the great Pittsburgh Pass Rush led by TJ Watt? You have to have a scrambling quarterback. Lamar Jackson has given the Steelers offense with his ability to get out of the pocket and pick up chunks of yardage. In four games against the Steelers, he has recorded 45, 55, 65 and 70 yards rushing.

And because everyone loves trends – or loves to hate them – rookie QBs are 11-0 this season when favored. It seems the market can’t catch up with Commanders.

CHOOSE: Commanders (-2.5) who win by more than 2.5 points

Can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the UPSET against the San Francisco 49ers?

49ERS @ BUCQUENERS (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Last year, San Francisco limped into the bye with three straight losses, and stars like Trent Williams, Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel were all out or missing some time (Purdy suffered a concussion against Minnesota).

They came out of the bye and had to travel to Florida to meet Jacksonville. The Jags had won five straight and were 6-2. The healthy 49ers destroyed the Jags 34-3 and reeled off seven straight wins.

This year, the 49ers were plagued by injuries heading into the farewell game, alternated wins and losses and now head to Florida.

With Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings and especially Christian McCaffrey back – combined with all of Tampa’s problems – how can you not love the 49ers here?

The line started at 6, then dropped to 5, then went back to 6 and now goes to 7. The Bucs are coming off an overtime loss on Monday night in which their defense was on the field for 83 games against KC. will have to face the 49ers.

Not only is Tampa’s defense leaking oil, but the offense is a mess. They have been torched by Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins ​​and Pat Mahomes in the last three games to the tune of twelve touchdowns allowed and zero interceptions.

This could be a 40-17 type beating.

PICK: 49ers (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points

Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen headline the midseason MVP award

LIONS @ TEXANS (8:20 p.m., NBC/Pauw)

Early in the week I got fired on the house dog, with the division leader getting more than a field goal at home.

They got back Nico Collins, one of the best receivers in the league! And the offense doesn’t look the same without him. The Texans are 6-13 when he doesn’t play.

And then Collins didn’t practice all week, through Friday, and it’s unclear if he’ll play or how much at press time. In addition, edge rusher Will Anderson has not practiced due to an ankle injury and is unable to play.

On the back end, the Texans defense has been on fire, giving up 19 TD passes, which ranks second in the NFL (Baltimore is first but has played one more game). Houston’s red zone defense ranks fourth worst in the NFL, giving up TDs 69% of the time.

So the Texans can’t get any stops. The offense is scattered without Collins. Where is Houston’s lead?

There’s no way the Texans can overlook the Lions — even with a huge rivalry game next week in Dallas — but it’s very hard for me to pass up the Lions here with the way this team is rolling.

In their last 55 games, the Lions are 40-15 ATS. In 2022, they were 12-5 ATS, second-best in the NFL. Last season they were an NFL-best 14-6 ATS; this season they are 7-1 ATS.

If I were to hide their name and logo, you would think these were the Chiefs, Ravens or the 49ers.

It’s as chalky as it gets, but give me Detroit.

PICK: Lions (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before joining FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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