•A lack of efficiency can be fatal Rachaad White‘s fantasy potential: If White maintains his current volume, he will remain one of the top five fantasy running backs, but there are several indicators that his workload could be decreasing.

• The diminishing role of Christian Kirk: Kirk’s touchdown total could decline for the second straight year, making it unlikely he’ll match the touchdown total he scored in 2021.

• Master your fantasy design: Subscribe to PFF+ to get full access to PFF’s suite of fantasy football tools, including the fantasy mock draft simulator, live draft assistant, fantasy draft rankings, cheat sheets and more! Click here to subscribe!

Estimated reading time: 15 minutes

According to my rankings, all five of these players have ADPs at least one round higher than where they should be drafted. Even if they fall slightly from ADP, they are players you should not draft.

Last updated: 07:15 am Wednesday, August 22

RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Book Hunters (ADP: 4.04, from ADP consensus)

White finished last season as the overall RB4, thanks to his volume and health. With Leonard Fournette no longer on the Bucs’ roster, but White’s carries and routes per game increased significantly from last year’s rookie season.

This increased usage led to White posting some of the best receiving volume numbers among running backs. He made big plays in the passing game, which increased his yards per route run average, even as his target rate dropped.

White’s rushing efficiency, however, was below average for the position. He moved the chains less often and broke up fewer big plays than other running backs.

While it’s easy to point to the offensive line as the reason for White’s inefficiency (and it played a role, as he faced fewer perfectly blocked plays than most running backs), the fact remains that even on perfectly blocked plays, his average yards per carry was lower than many other running backs in the league.

White emerged as a key player last year, with his snap rates in various situations somewhat resembling Christian McCaffrey’s. The Buccaneers tried Chase Edmonds, Sean Tucker and Ke’Shawn Vaughn as White’s primary backups at various points throughout the season; none stood out or could take White’s time.

The Buccaneers drafted Oregon pick Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 draft, and he’ll likely serve as the Bucs’ primary backup this season. While Irving will likely play about 25% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps to start the season, there’s at least a chance (given Irving’s efficiency in college and White’s lack thereof in the NFL) that Irving will become the primary early-down back at some point this season.

Recent comments from head coach Todd Bowles suggesting the team is happy with Irving and that he adds an element they didn’t have last season:

“He (Irving) can put his foot down and run the ball. And more importantly, he can make the first guy miss more often than not, and you know, that’s a rare trait in this game, especially when so many guys can tackle well and get to the ball really quickly. Making the first guy miss and potentially making a big play, that’s something we didn’t have a lot of last year.”

White is the longer, more important back of the two, so even if Irving eats into White’s playing time on early downs, White can still control goal-line snaps and short-yardage situations. And while Irving has shown some promise as a receiver, White is more efficient at that position, so it’s less likely that White will lose the receiver job.

Liam Coen joins the Buccaneers as the new offensive coordinator. When Coen was the Rams’ offensive coordinator, his team ran more plays than expected. However, they didn’t throw much to their running backs and didn’t run many plays in general. This change will likely benefit the fantasy value of the Buccaneers’ wide receivers more than it will White.

Volume is the most important factor for a running back. White had plenty of it last season, even though he wasn’t efficient. While efficient running backs are more likely to maintain their volume, White is an example of a player who had volume but risks losing it this season if he doesn’t capitalize on more of his opportunities.

If White had performed better on a per-play basis last year, he would have been a first- or second-round pick. Instead, he remains a risky pick. While he has top-five potential, there’s also the risk that he won’t be the Buccaneers’ starter for long. Any other running back with an ADP in the first four rounds isn’t at risk of seeing a significant drop in playing time.

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