“I’m happy with just one bowl game.”

Since the 2023 season ended on a cold, gray November day, that’s my answer to what I want for the 2024 season. If Nebraska finishes six-and-six or seven-and-five, I’ll be happy. Eight wins? Awesome! Nine or more? Let’s go.

But I’m already happy with a bowl game.

When we make projections or evaluate what makes a season good or bad, remember that there is a difference between “success” and “progress.” I will not dismiss success, especially after the last six years. But I will welcome progress. Because where Nebraska is – and has been – a bowl game is undeniable progress.

* * *

Last year was about laying a foundation. Culture. Stability. Starting the development of a winning squad.

This year is about shaping the rebuilt program of our dreams. What do we want Nebraska football to be and how do we get there? Construction won’t be complete this year, but real, tangible progress can be made. Recruits and visitors should be able to see the vision take shape.

And – and this is important – until the dream house is finished, we need to make sure nothing happens to the five-star sports car sitting in the driveway.

* * *

I know a lot of people are expecting exponential success this season – a “Year 2” boost that gets Nebraska closer to 9 or 10 wins than it has in a long, long time. Between the return of Tony White and most of his defense, a schedule that seems favorable (on paper) and a freshman named Raiola, it’s easy to understand. There’s a lot of optimism in the offseason.

While I wouldn’t turn down that offer, I’m happy to stay on track with Rhule’s previous rebuild projects:

Rhule’s records in Year 2 (6-6 at Temple, 7-6 at Baylor) are a big leap forward from Year 1. Year 3 (10-4 and 11-3, respectively) is where things really pick up.

If you want to argue that the knowledge and experience Rhule has gained in his career and/or the transfer portal accelerate that timetable, I’d be happy to hear your arguments.

But here’s the thing: I don’t want to skip any steps.

I’m willing to be patient – especially if we can see growth. Rhule’s system has worked twice before and I believe it will work again.

* * *

After being stuck in the basement of college football for so long, I totally get the urge to take an express elevator up—especially when Dylan Raiola is pushing the buttons. But I’m perfectly fine with taking the stairs.

I believe we can reach the same heights, but my priority remains to build something sustainable and lasting. I don’t want a one-hit wonder.

As I wrote on the day Scott Frost was fired: “Nebraska’s struggles and failures in the 21st century cannot be traced to where its head coach was born or went to college. Nebraska has struggled because its last five head coaches ultimately failed to do the things necessary to make Nebraska a stable, sustainable program.”

Nine or 10 wins, and all that comes with it — national attention, playoff buzz, inflated egos, etc. — would be intoxicating. It would be a great way to dust off the Nebraska bandwagon. For a generation of fans who haven’t experienced what it’s like to see a Nebraska win, it would be like a blind man seeing a rainbow for the first time.

But what happens if that’s not sustainable in 2025? What if Nebraska were to “fall back” to 8-4 or 7-5? Can we handle that? Or would it add pressure?

This is one of the reasons why I am fine with a more gradual climb. Get six, seven, eight wins this year. Show clear progress and identify weaknesses that need to be corrected (via the portal or development of younger players). Then let’s let it go and see how far it can go.

* * *

I’ll admit that my “I’m happy with a bowl game” mantra is influenced by a “under-promise, over-deliver” mentality.

It’s easy to see a scenario where Nebraska starts 7-0, beats teams it hasn’t beaten in a long time (i.e., most of the November schedule), and gets a national run as a playoff contender. Is that possible? Absolutely.

But after years of believing, “Of course, we’re going to make a bowl game, this is Nebraska!”, I want them to reach that bar before I think bigger. Show me growth. Show me progress. Show me.

A few weeks ago I saw a tweet from a guy who said, “If Nebraska doesn’t get to at least 6-1 to start the season, people are going to fire Matt Rhule and I’ll be calling the shots.” While that’s (hopefully) a fringe opinion, I have a feeling that guy is going to have a fall full of anger and disappointment.

I don’t. I see what Rhule is building. I see how progress in 2024 will lead to better recruiting in high schools and portals in 2025 because talented difference makers want to come on board. Better talent is the key to future success.

Rather than being disappointed that Nebraska didn’t get some random bunch of wins, plucked from a moment of Kool Aid-fueled offseason nirvana, I want to be happy about their progress. If that progress is accompanied by success, all the better.

That approach is better for my mental health and for the enjoyment of the season.

* * *

If you want a record prediction, give me a 7-5.

While I like Nebraska’s potential, I have concerns about the depth (or lack thereof) at several key positions. Injuries happen in football, and if the reserves (and in some cases, the reserves of the reserves) aren’t ready to step in, the team can suffer.

How long does it take to find an answer at running back without it impacting games? Special teams can’t be as much of a liability as it was a year ago. Is there a weakness on defense that we haven’t considered?

I think Nebraska will have some impressive wins this year. There will also be some losses that show there is still work to be done. Again, that is fine. The rot that has plagued this great program did not develop in two seasons, so why should we expect it to magically be fixed in two years?

I’m happy with just one bowl game.

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