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A tropical depression could become Hurricane Rafael

Vaseline November 4, 2024

A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean on Monday, which could eventually develop into a hurricane this weekend and threaten the Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center said.

The system is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael and then Hurricane Rafael in the coming days as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said.

However, given significant uncertainties in the projected track and intensity of the long-term forecasts, it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts could occur in the U.S., the hurricane center said.

“There has never been a tropical storm or hurricane on land in Texas, Louisiana or Mississippi in November and December. So that would be quite a milestone, but it doesn’t mean people along the central and western Gulf Coast should let their guard down. said AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.

Jamaica and Cuba are seeing the first effects

On Monday morning, the depression was located about 190 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and had maximum sustained winds of about 35 miles per hour, with higher gusts.

“Northwestward motion is expected later today and is expected to continue over the next few days,” the hurricane center said in a hurricane advisory Monday morning. According to the NHC, the system is expected to move near Jamaica on Monday evening, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Forecasters said Monday that “the system could be near hurricane intensity as it passes the Cayman Islands and Cuba.”

The NHC said tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica on Monday evening and hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rainfall is expected to impact areas in the western Caribbean. The heaviest rainfall is likely to occur over Jamaica and parts of Cuba by mid-week.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected and local totals of up to 9 inches are expected, and flooding and mudslides could occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba, the NHC said.

In three or four days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwest vertical wind shear, drier air and slightly cooler water should end the strengthening trend and lead to weakening, forecasters said.

Patty is no longer a tropical cyclone

The hurricane center said Monday that Patty is no longer a tropical storm or cyclone in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.

“The remains of Patty will turn east-northeast later today,” the hurricane center said. “Heavy rainfall from the remnants of Patty is possible in parts of Portugal and western Spain between tonight and Tuesday.”