The reigning champion Las Vegas Aces went on the road to take on the struggling Phoenix Mercury in a battle of two underperforming teams.

Phoenix is ​​a three-point home underdog, and my Aces vs. Mercury predictions have this game coming up as a high-scoring affair regardless of the winner. Find out why in my WNBA picks for September 1.

Aces vs Mercury Predictions

My best chance
Over 167.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
It hasn’t been a great year for most Las Vegas Aces fans. But despite their struggles, the Aces still have the league’s second-shortest WNBA championship odds. That’s thanks to their offense, led by MVP odds-on favorite A’ja Wilson.

Behind Wilson, Las Vegas tops the WNBA in points per game (86.9) and pace (80.3), while ranking second in offensive rating (107.7).

Nobody seems to be able to slow Wilson, who is scoring a league-leading 27 points per game. But it’s not just her that makes this offense so dangerous.

Both Kelsey Plum (17.6 ppg) and Jackie Young (17.1 ppg) are in the Top 20 in scoring, combining for 4.8 3-pointers per game. That will come in handy against the Mercury, who allow the most 3-pointers per game in the league (8.9).

Phoenix’s defense has been shaky overall this season, allowing the fourth-best points per game in the WNBA (84.4) and ranking ninth in defensive rating (106.7).

It’s not just the Mercury defense that will help the Over cash in, though. The offense is capable of exploiting the Aces’ struggling defense.

Led by Kahleah Copper, Phoenix is ​​scoring 82.7 points per game and ranks second in the league in 2-point percentage (50.6%).

Copper trails only Wilson in points per game (22.3), and she doesn’t carry this offense alone. Brittney Griner is a force inside, averaging 18.1 ppg, and Diana Taurasi remains ageless while putting up 15.6 ppg.

Meanwhile, Vegas ranks sixth in the league (82.8) and has been killing it on the perimeter. The Aces allow the third-most deep balls per game (8.2) and the second-highest 3-point percentage (36.4%).

Aces vs Mercury parlay in the same match (SGP)

More than 167.5

A’ja Wilson Over 38.5 points + rebounds

Kahleah Copper More than 21.5 points

If the Over is going to hit, it will be because Wilson is delivering another monster performance. She is averaging 38.8 points and rebounds this season and has been unstoppable in her last three games.

Wilson is averaging 29.3 points per game and 13.3 rebounds in her last three games, and in 16 of 31 games (two of those against PHX) she has averaged above 38.5.

To keep up with Wilson and the Aces’ offense, Copper will have to continue playing at an All-Star level. After a few quieter games, the odds of her going over 21.5 are about as good.

That value is too good to pass up, considering she’s scored 22+ in 15 games this season — including three of the six since returning from the Olympic break. Copper also dropped 37 against Vegas earlier in the season.

Learn how to bet on a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Aces vs Mercury Odds

Aces vs Mercury Live Odds

Check out the latest Aces vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.

Opening odds Aces vs Mercury

• Distribution: Las Vegas -3.5 (-105) | Phoenix +3.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Las Vegas -165 | Phoenix +140
• Over/Under: More than 168.5 (-105) | Less than 168.5 (-115)

Aces vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Aces opened as 2.5 to 3 point favorites, while most bookmakers now have Las Vegas at -3.5 to -4.
• Las Vegas is just 11-20 ATS this season, while Phoenix is ​​17-14-1.
• The Over/Under opened at a whopping 170.5, with most bookmakers now offering a price between 167.5 and 168.5.
• The Aces are 15-16 against the Over this season, with the Mercury at 14-17-1.

Aces vs Mercury trend

The Over is 4-0 in its last four meetings in Phoenix. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Mercury.

Aces vs Mercury game info

Latest injuries Aces vs Mercury

Aces: There were no injuries.
Mercury: Charisma Osborne G (Out), Rebecca Allen F (Out).
Check out our latest WNBA injury reports.

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